Recent forecasts from meteorological agencies indicate Sao Paulo will experience a warm, dry air mass through August 30, 2026, supporting daytime highs near 30–36°C but allowing nocturnal radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light winds. Model consensus points to overnight lows near 19–22°C, with minor variations driven by differences in boundary-layer mixing, dew point levels around 13–17°C, and any subtle shifts in high-pressure positioning. These conditions explain the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 18–19°C outcomes, as traders weigh official guidance against historical August minima near 12°C and the potential for slightly enhanced cooling if winds calm further or cloud cover increases modestly overnight. Updated model runs expected later on August 29 could refine the exact minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 30?
25°C 51%
26°C 51%
27°C or higher 51%
19°C 47%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
17°C or below
39%
18°C
40%
19°C
47%
20°C
34%
21°C
30%
22°C
8%
23°C
13%
24°C
41%
25°C
51%
26°C
51%
27°C or higher
51%
25°C 51%
26°C 51%
27°C or higher 51%
19°C 47%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
17°C or below
$0 Vol.
39%
18°C
$0 Vol.
40%
19°C
$0 Vol.
47%
20°C
$0 Vol.
34%
21°C
$0 Vol.
30%
22°C
$15 Vol.
8%
23°C
$169 Vol.
13%
24°C
$129 Vol.
41%
25°C
$10 Vol.
51%
26°C
$15 Vol.
51%
27°C or higher
$145 Vol.
51%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from meteorological agencies indicate Sao Paulo will experience a warm, dry air mass through August 30, 2026, supporting daytime highs near 30–36°C but allowing nocturnal radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light winds. Model consensus points to overnight lows near 19–22°C, with minor variations driven by differences in boundary-layer mixing, dew point levels around 13–17°C, and any subtle shifts in high-pressure positioning. These conditions explain the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 18–19°C outcomes, as traders weigh official guidance against historical August minima near 12°C and the potential for slightly enhanced cooling if winds calm further or cloud cover increases modestly overnight. Updated model runs expected later on August 29 could refine the exact minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
Volume
$483End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 2:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from meteorological agencies indicate Sao Paulo will experience a warm, dry air mass through August 30, 2026, supporting daytime highs near 30–36°C but allowing nocturnal radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light winds. Model consensus points to overnight lows near 19–22°C, with minor variations driven by differences in boundary-layer mixing, dew point levels around 13–17°C, and any subtle shifts in high-pressure positioning. These conditions explain the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 18–19°C outcomes, as traders weigh official guidance against historical August minima near 12°C and the potential for slightly enhanced cooling if winds calm further or cloud cover increases modestly overnight. Updated model runs expected later on August 29 could refine the exact minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$483End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 2:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from meteorological agencies indicate Sao Paulo will experience a warm, dry air mass through August 30, 2026, supporting daytime highs near 30–36°C but allowing nocturnal radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light winds. Model consensus points to overnight lows near 19–22°C, with minor variations driven by differences in boundary-layer mixing, dew point levels around 13–17°C, and any subtle shifts in high-pressure positioning. These conditions explain the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 18–19°C outcomes, as traders weigh official guidance against historical August minima near 12°C and the potential for slightly enhanced cooling if winds calm further or cloud cover increases modestly overnight. Updated model runs expected later on August 29 could refine the exact minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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