Persistent cloud cover and scattered showers from a stationary front over the Kanto region are the main drivers keeping trader-implied odds highest for a 27°C peak on August 30, followed closely by 28°C and 26°C. Reduced solar insolation under overcast skies, combined with light northerly winds and high humidity near 80-90%, limits daytime heating compared with typical late-August conditions. Ensemble guidance from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency shows afternoon maxima clustered between 26-29°C, with minimal model spread due to the stable synoptic pattern. Resolution hinges on whether brief clearing allows brief warming toward 29°C or sustained stratiform clouds cap readings nearer 26°C; updated short-range model runs and surface observations on the 29th will provide the next key signals for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 30?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 30?
27°C 34%
26°C 22%
28°C 22%
25°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
7%
26°C
22%
27°C
34%
28°C
22%
29°C
6%
30°C
4%
31°C
2%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
27°C 34%
26°C 22%
28°C 22%
25°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
23°C or below
$190 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$210 Vol.
1%
25°C
$383 Vol.
7%
26°C
$761 Vol.
22%
27°C
$876 Vol.
34%
28°C
$835 Vol.
22%
29°C
$1,092 Vol.
6%
30°C
$361 Vol.
4%
31°C
$170 Vol.
2%
32°C
$742 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$416 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent cloud cover and scattered showers from a stationary front over the Kanto region are the main drivers keeping trader-implied odds highest for a 27°C peak on August 30, followed closely by 28°C and 26°C. Reduced solar insolation under overcast skies, combined with light northerly winds and high humidity near 80-90%, limits daytime heating compared with typical late-August conditions. Ensemble guidance from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency shows afternoon maxima clustered between 26-29°C, with minimal model spread due to the stable synoptic pattern. Resolution hinges on whether brief clearing allows brief warming toward 29°C or sustained stratiform clouds cap readings nearer 26°C; updated short-range model runs and surface observations on the 29th will provide the next key signals for traders.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$6,036End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent cloud cover and scattered showers from a stationary front over the Kanto region are the main drivers keeping trader-implied odds highest for a 27°C peak on August 30, followed closely by 28°C and 26°C. Reduced solar insolation under overcast skies, combined with light northerly winds and high humidity near 80-90%, limits daytime heating compared with typical late-August conditions. Ensemble guidance from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency shows afternoon maxima clustered between 26-29°C, with minimal model spread due to the stable synoptic pattern. Resolution hinges on whether brief clearing allows brief warming toward 29°C or sustained stratiform clouds cap readings nearer 26°C; updated short-range model runs and surface observations on the 29th will provide the next key signals for traders.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,036End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent cloud cover and scattered showers from a stationary front over the Kanto region are the main drivers keeping trader-implied odds highest for a 27°C peak on August 30, followed closely by 28°C and 26°C. Reduced solar insolation under overcast skies, combined with light northerly winds and high humidity near 80-90%, limits daytime heating compared with typical late-August conditions. Ensemble guidance from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency shows afternoon maxima clustered between 26-29°C, with minimal model spread due to the stable synoptic pattern. Resolution hinges on whether brief clearing allows brief warming toward 29°C or sustained stratiform clouds cap readings nearer 26°C; updated short-range model runs and surface observations on the 29th will provide the next key signals for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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