**A rapidly intensifying El Niño, already producing Niño 3.4 anomalies above +2°C and forecast to reach very strong or super El Niño levels by late 2026, is the dominant near-term driver pushing September 2026 global temperatures toward the top ranks.** Record extra-polar sea-surface temperatures (21.1°C on 22 August) reflect the combined effects of long-term anthropogenic warming and this event, with July 2026 tying or approaching the hottest July on record across major datasets. El Niño’s global-mean temperature impact typically lags Pacific peaks by several months, so September will capture early reinforcement of the background trend but not the full seasonal maximum expected later in fall or winter. Recent model runs place 2026 on track for second-warmest annual ranking behind 2024, with rising odds of a new record depending on dataset and exact El Niño evolution; September’s precise placement among the top three therefore hinges on how quickly the current ocean heat anomaly translates into monthly surface temperatures versus any short-term atmospheric variability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSeptember 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
2nd hottest 49%
3rd hottest 49%
4th or lower 49%
1st hottest 46%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
1st hottest
46%
2nd hottest
49%
3rd hottest
49%
4th or lower
49%
2nd hottest 49%
3rd hottest 49%
4th or lower 49%
1st hottest 46%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
1st hottest
$0 Vol.
46%
2nd hottest
$0 Vol.
49%
3rd hottest
$0 Vol.
49%
4th or lower
$0 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.**A rapidly intensifying El Niño, already producing Niño 3.4 anomalies above +2°C and forecast to reach very strong or super El Niño levels by late 2026, is the dominant near-term driver pushing September 2026 global temperatures toward the top ranks.** Record extra-polar sea-surface temperatures (21.1°C on 22 August) reflect the combined effects of long-term anthropogenic warming and this event, with July 2026 tying or approaching the hottest July on record across major datasets. El Niño’s global-mean temperature impact typically lags Pacific peaks by several months, so September will capture early reinforcement of the background trend but not the full seasonal maximum expected later in fall or winter. Recent model runs place 2026 on track for second-warmest annual ranking behind 2024, with rising odds of a new record depending on dataset and exact El Niño evolution; September’s precise placement among the top three therefore hinges on how quickly the current ocean heat anomaly translates into monthly surface temperatures versus any short-term atmospheric variability.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.**A rapidly intensifying El Niño, already producing Niño 3.4 anomalies above +2°C and forecast to reach very strong or super El Niño levels by late 2026, is the dominant near-term driver pushing September 2026 global temperatures toward the top ranks.** Record extra-polar sea-surface temperatures (21.1°C on 22 August) reflect the combined effects of long-term anthropogenic warming and this event, with July 2026 tying or approaching the hottest July on record across major datasets. El Niño’s global-mean temperature impact typically lags Pacific peaks by several months, so September will capture early reinforcement of the background trend but not the full seasonal maximum expected later in fall or winter. Recent model runs place 2026 on track for second-warmest annual ranking behind 2024, with rising odds of a new record depending on dataset and exact El Niño evolution; September’s precise placement among the top three therefore hinges on how quickly the current ocean heat anomaly translates into monthly surface temperatures versus any short-term atmospheric variability.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**A rapidly intensifying El Niño, already producing Niño 3.4 anomalies above +2°C and forecast to reach very strong or super El Niño levels by late 2026, is the dominant near-term driver pushing September 2026 global temperatures toward the top ranks.** Record extra-polar sea-surface temperatures (21.1°C on 22 August) reflect the combined effects of long-term anthropogenic warming and this event, with July 2026 tying or approaching the hottest July on record across major datasets. El Niño’s global-mean temperature impact typically lags Pacific peaks by several months, so September will capture early reinforcement of the background trend but not the full seasonal maximum expected later in fall or winter. Recent model runs place 2026 on track for second-warmest annual ranking behind 2024, with rising odds of a new record depending on dataset and exact El Niño evolution; September’s precise placement among the top three therefore hinges on how quickly the current ocean heat anomaly translates into monthly surface temperatures versus any short-term atmospheric variability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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