Elevated early-season West Nile virus activity in New York City mosquitoes, with over 1,000 positive pools detected across all five boroughs since mid-June—nearly double last year's pace—combined with the first confirmed human case reported on August 19, forms the main driver behind closely matched market odds for 2026 neuroinvasive disease counts among residents. Official NYC Health Department and CDC surveillance through mid-August shows zero neuroinvasive cases to date locally, consistent with historical patterns of low incidence (typically single digits to low teens annually) despite widespread transmission potential during peak June–October mosquito season. Factors differentiating the leading ranges under 35 versus 50 or more include variable weather influences on vector populations, effectiveness of ongoing larviciding and adulticiding efforts, and the small proportion of infections that progress to neuroinvasive illness, with upcoming weekly reports and continued model updates likely to refine trader assessments before season's end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
35 to 49 47%
Fewer than 20 46%
20 to 34 46%
50 or more 44%
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2027
Fewer than 20
46%
20 to 34
46%
35 to 49
47%
50 or more
44%
35 to 49 47%
Fewer than 20 46%
20 to 34 46%
50 or more 44%
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2027
Fewer than 20
$0 Vol.
46%
20 to 34
$0 Vol.
46%
35 to 49
$0 Vol.
47%
50 or more
$0 Vol.
44%
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.Elevated early-season West Nile virus activity in New York City mosquitoes, with over 1,000 positive pools detected across all five boroughs since mid-June—nearly double last year's pace—combined with the first confirmed human case reported on August 19, forms the main driver behind closely matched market odds for 2026 neuroinvasive disease counts among residents. Official NYC Health Department and CDC surveillance through mid-August shows zero neuroinvasive cases to date locally, consistent with historical patterns of low incidence (typically single digits to low teens annually) despite widespread transmission potential during peak June–October mosquito season. Factors differentiating the leading ranges under 35 versus 50 or more include variable weather influences on vector populations, effectiveness of ongoing larviciding and adulticiding efforts, and the small proportion of infections that progress to neuroinvasive illness, with upcoming weekly reports and continued model updates likely to refine trader assessments before season's end.
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Mar 31, 2027Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.Elevated early-season West Nile virus activity in New York City mosquitoes, with over 1,000 positive pools detected across all five boroughs since mid-June—nearly double last year's pace—combined with the first confirmed human case reported on August 19, forms the main driver behind closely matched market odds for 2026 neuroinvasive disease counts among residents. Official NYC Health Department and CDC surveillance through mid-August shows zero neuroinvasive cases to date locally, consistent with historical patterns of low incidence (typically single digits to low teens annually) despite widespread transmission potential during peak June–October mosquito season. Factors differentiating the leading ranges under 35 versus 50 or more include variable weather influences on vector populations, effectiveness of ongoing larviciding and adulticiding efforts, and the small proportion of infections that progress to neuroinvasive illness, with upcoming weekly reports and continued model updates likely to refine trader assessments before season's end.
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Volume
$0End Date
Mar 31, 2027Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated early-season West Nile virus activity in New York City mosquitoes, with over 1,000 positive pools detected across all five boroughs since mid-June—nearly double last year's pace—combined with the first confirmed human case reported on August 19, forms the main driver behind closely matched market odds for 2026 neuroinvasive disease counts among residents. Official NYC Health Department and CDC surveillance through mid-August shows zero neuroinvasive cases to date locally, consistent with historical patterns of low incidence (typically single digits to low teens annually) despite widespread transmission potential during peak June–October mosquito season. Factors differentiating the leading ranges under 35 versus 50 or more include variable weather influences on vector populations, effectiveness of ongoing larviciding and adulticiding efforts, and the small proportion of infections that progress to neuroinvasive illness, with upcoming weekly reports and continued model updates likely to refine trader assessments before season's end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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