Current forecast consensus from Environment Canada and numerical models centers the overnight minimum near 19°C for Toronto on August 30, explaining the closely matched market-implied odds clustered around 18–20°C. Southwesterly flow and increasing cloud cover with a 60% chance of showers will suppress radiative cooling overnight, while modest warm advection from upstream air masses sustains higher dew points and limits temperature drops. Model spread in precipitation timing and boundary-layer mixing creates the primary uncertainty differentiating these outcomes, with drier scenarios potentially allowing brief dips toward 18°C and heavier rain or sustained winds holding readings near 20°C. Updated model runs and official briefings through the evening will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Toronto on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Toronto on August 30?
19°C 32%
20°C 31%
18°C 27%
16°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
14°C or below
14%
15°C
8%
16°C
26%
17°C
25%
18°C
27%
19°C
32%
20°C
31%
21°C
6%
22°C
5%
23°C
8%
24°C or higher
16%
19°C 32%
20°C 31%
18°C 27%
16°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
14°C or below
$58 Vol.
14%
15°C
$31 Vol.
8%
16°C
$0 Vol.
26%
17°C
$0 Vol.
25%
18°C
$0 Vol.
27%
19°C
$0 Vol.
32%
20°C
$0 Vol.
31%
21°C
$0 Vol.
6%
22°C
$0 Vol.
5%
23°C
$20 Vol.
8%
24°C or higher
$10 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus from Environment Canada and numerical models centers the overnight minimum near 19°C for Toronto on August 30, explaining the closely matched market-implied odds clustered around 18–20°C. Southwesterly flow and increasing cloud cover with a 60% chance of showers will suppress radiative cooling overnight, while modest warm advection from upstream air masses sustains higher dew points and limits temperature drops. Model spread in precipitation timing and boundary-layer mixing creates the primary uncertainty differentiating these outcomes, with drier scenarios potentially allowing brief dips toward 18°C and heavier rain or sustained winds holding readings near 20°C. Updated model runs and official briefings through the evening will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
Volume
$119End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 2:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus from Environment Canada and numerical models centers the overnight minimum near 19°C for Toronto on August 30, explaining the closely matched market-implied odds clustered around 18–20°C. Southwesterly flow and increasing cloud cover with a 60% chance of showers will suppress radiative cooling overnight, while modest warm advection from upstream air masses sustains higher dew points and limits temperature drops. Model spread in precipitation timing and boundary-layer mixing creates the primary uncertainty differentiating these outcomes, with drier scenarios potentially allowing brief dips toward 18°C and heavier rain or sustained winds holding readings near 20°C. Updated model runs and official briefings through the evening will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$119End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 2:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast consensus from Environment Canada and numerical models centers the overnight minimum near 19°C for Toronto on August 30, explaining the closely matched market-implied odds clustered around 18–20°C. Southwesterly flow and increasing cloud cover with a 60% chance of showers will suppress radiative cooling overnight, while modest warm advection from upstream air masses sustains higher dew points and limits temperature drops. Model spread in precipitation timing and boundary-layer mixing creates the primary uncertainty differentiating these outcomes, with drier scenarios potentially allowing brief dips toward 18°C and heavier rain or sustained winds holding readings near 20°C. Updated model runs and official briefings through the evening will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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