Global seismic activity remains within normal ranges according to USGS and monitoring data, with roughly 35–40 magnitude 5+ events expected weekly on average and M5.5+ counts typically clustering between 8 and 12. Recent weeks have shown slightly below-average rates following clusters in Indonesia, Colombia, and the Philippines, contributing to the market’s highest implied probability on ≤6 outcomes. Key variables include ongoing aftershock sequences from prior M7+ events, plate boundary strain release rates in the Pacific Ring of Fire, and natural Poisson variability in occurrence. USGS catalog trends confirm no sustained deviation from long-term baselines, leaving resolution dependent on any new clusters or quiet periods during the seven-day window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 31 - September 6?
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 31 - September 6?
≤6 25%
8 15%
9 13%
11 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
≤6
25%
7
9%
8
15%
9
13%
10
12%
11
13%
12
9%
13
7%
more than 13
9%
≤6 25%
8 15%
9 13%
11 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
≤6
$372 Vol.
25%
7
$14 Vol.
9%
8
$0 Vol.
15%
9
$0 Vol.
13%
10
$0 Vol.
12%
11
$884 Vol.
13%
12
$0 Vol.
9%
13
$0 Vol.
7%
more than 13
$9 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic activity remains within normal ranges according to USGS and monitoring data, with roughly 35–40 magnitude 5+ events expected weekly on average and M5.5+ counts typically clustering between 8 and 12. Recent weeks have shown slightly below-average rates following clusters in Indonesia, Colombia, and the Philippines, contributing to the market’s highest implied probability on ≤6 outcomes. Key variables include ongoing aftershock sequences from prior M7+ events, plate boundary strain release rates in the Pacific Ring of Fire, and natural Poisson variability in occurrence. USGS catalog trends confirm no sustained deviation from long-term baselines, leaving resolution dependent on any new clusters or quiet periods during the seven-day window.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 11:01 AM ET
Volume
$1,280End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 11:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic activity remains within normal ranges according to USGS and monitoring data, with roughly 35–40 magnitude 5+ events expected weekly on average and M5.5+ counts typically clustering between 8 and 12. Recent weeks have shown slightly below-average rates following clusters in Indonesia, Colombia, and the Philippines, contributing to the market’s highest implied probability on ≤6 outcomes. Key variables include ongoing aftershock sequences from prior M7+ events, plate boundary strain release rates in the Pacific Ring of Fire, and natural Poisson variability in occurrence. USGS catalog trends confirm no sustained deviation from long-term baselines, leaving resolution dependent on any new clusters or quiet periods during the seven-day window.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$1,280End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 11:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Global seismic activity remains within normal ranges according to USGS and monitoring data, with roughly 35–40 magnitude 5+ events expected weekly on average and M5.5+ counts typically clustering between 8 and 12. Recent weeks have shown slightly below-average rates following clusters in Indonesia, Colombia, and the Philippines, contributing to the market’s highest implied probability on ≤6 outcomes. Key variables include ongoing aftershock sequences from prior M7+ events, plate boundary strain release rates in the Pacific Ring of Fire, and natural Poisson variability in occurrence. USGS catalog trends confirm no sustained deviation from long-term baselines, leaving resolution dependent on any new clusters or quiet periods during the seven-day window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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