**Forecast models and official guidance from the National Weather Service point to a Friday night low in the mid-50s for Seattle, with most runs converging on 54–58°F amid increasing cloud cover and a weak disturbance.** An upper-level trough is driving the pattern, limiting radiational cooling while onshore flow and rising humidity keep overnight temperatures from falling sharply. This setup explains the tight clustering around the 56–57°F bin (currently the market leader at 38.5%) and the near-equal weighting of the 58–59°F and lower-tail outcomes. Historical late-August climatology for Sea-Tac shows average lows near 55°F, so the current consensus aligns with typical conditions modified by the incoming moisture. Updated model runs and the next NWS forecast discussion remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities before the market resolves.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Seattle on August 28?
Lowest temperature in Seattle on August 28?
49°F or below 58%
60-61°F 49%
56-57°F 37%
58-59°F 31%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
49°F or below
58%
50-51°F
16%
52-53°F
20%
54-55°F
21%
56-57°F
37%
58-59°F
31%
60-61°F
49%
62-63°F
18%
64-65°F
2%
66-67°F
13%
68°F or higher
7%
49°F or below 58%
60-61°F 49%
56-57°F 37%
58-59°F 31%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
49°F or below
$0 Vol.
58%
50-51°F
$0 Vol.
16%
52-53°F
$0 Vol.
20%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
21%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
37%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
31%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
49%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
18%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
2%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
13%
68°F or higher
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and official guidance from the National Weather Service point to a Friday night low in the mid-50s for Seattle, with most runs converging on 54–58°F amid increasing cloud cover and a weak disturbance.** An upper-level trough is driving the pattern, limiting radiational cooling while onshore flow and rising humidity keep overnight temperatures from falling sharply. This setup explains the tight clustering around the 56–57°F bin (currently the market leader at 38.5%) and the near-equal weighting of the 58–59°F and lower-tail outcomes. Historical late-August climatology for Sea-Tac shows average lows near 55°F, so the current consensus aligns with typical conditions modified by the incoming moisture. Updated model runs and the next NWS forecast discussion remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities before the market resolves.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kseaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and official guidance from the National Weather Service point to a Friday night low in the mid-50s for Seattle, with most runs converging on 54–58°F amid increasing cloud cover and a weak disturbance.** An upper-level trough is driving the pattern, limiting radiational cooling while onshore flow and rising humidity keep overnight temperatures from falling sharply. This setup explains the tight clustering around the 56–57°F bin (currently the market leader at 38.5%) and the near-equal weighting of the 58–59°F and lower-tail outcomes. Historical late-August climatology for Sea-Tac shows average lows near 55°F, so the current consensus aligns with typical conditions modified by the incoming moisture. Updated model runs and the next NWS forecast discussion remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities before the market resolves.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kseaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models and official guidance from the National Weather Service point to a Friday night low in the mid-50s for Seattle, with most runs converging on 54–58°F amid increasing cloud cover and a weak disturbance.** An upper-level trough is driving the pattern, limiting radiational cooling while onshore flow and rising humidity keep overnight temperatures from falling sharply. This setup explains the tight clustering around the 56–57°F bin (currently the market leader at 38.5%) and the near-equal weighting of the 58–59°F and lower-tail outcomes. Historical late-August climatology for Sea-Tac shows average lows near 55°F, so the current consensus aligns with typical conditions modified by the incoming moisture. Updated model runs and the next NWS forecast discussion remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities before the market resolves.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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