**Trader sentiment heavily favors a minimum temperature of 16°C or below on August 31 in Madrid, with that bin carrying 72.5% implied probability amid stable late-summer high-pressure conditions.** Clear skies, light winds, and low dew points in the low teens Celsius are expected to enhance radiational cooling overnight, allowing surface temperatures to drop efficiently under the dry continental air mass typical of the region. Recent model consensus from multiple sources shows overnight lows settling around 16–20°C, aligning with climatological normals of roughly 16–17°C for the date while reflecting a slightly cooler-than-average August pattern observed so far. With the event only two days away, the next ECMWF or equivalent model runs will provide the final guidance on whether subtle shifts in cloud cover or wind could push the minimum above or below key thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on August 31?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on August 31?
16°C or below 75%
17°C 24%
18°C 18%
20°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
16°C or below
75%
17°C
24%
18°C
18%
19°C
10%
20°C
15%
21°C
2%
22°C
14%
23°C
9%
24°C
5%
25°C
5%
26°C or higher
1%
16°C or below 75%
17°C 24%
18°C 18%
20°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
16°C or below
$0 Vol.
75%
17°C
$0 Vol.
24%
18°C
$0 Vol.
18%
19°C
$20 Vol.
10%
20°C
$0 Vol.
15%
21°C
$0 Vol.
2%
22°C
$0 Vol.
14%
23°C
$0 Vol.
9%
24°C
$0 Vol.
5%
25°C
$0 Vol.
5%
26°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment heavily favors a minimum temperature of 16°C or below on August 31 in Madrid, with that bin carrying 72.5% implied probability amid stable late-summer high-pressure conditions.**
Clear skies, light winds, and low dew points in the low teens Celsius are expected to enhance radiational cooling overnight, allowing surface temperatures to drop efficiently under the dry continental air mass typical of the region. Recent model consensus from multiple sources shows overnight lows settling around 16–20°C, aligning with climatological normals of roughly 16–17°C for the date while reflecting a slightly cooler-than-average August pattern observed so far. With the event only two days away, the next ECMWF or equivalent model runs will provide the final guidance on whether subtle shifts in cloud cover or wind could push the minimum above or below key thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$20End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment heavily favors a minimum temperature of 16°C or below on August 31 in Madrid, with that bin carrying 72.5% implied probability amid stable late-summer high-pressure conditions.**
Clear skies, light winds, and low dew points in the low teens Celsius are expected to enhance radiational cooling overnight, allowing surface temperatures to drop efficiently under the dry continental air mass typical of the region. Recent model consensus from multiple sources shows overnight lows settling around 16–20°C, aligning with climatological normals of roughly 16–17°C for the date while reflecting a slightly cooler-than-average August pattern observed so far. With the event only two days away, the next ECMWF or equivalent model runs will provide the final guidance on whether subtle shifts in cloud cover or wind could push the minimum above or below key thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$20End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment heavily favors a minimum temperature of 16°C or below on August 31 in Madrid, with that bin carrying 72.5% implied probability amid stable late-summer high-pressure conditions.** Clear skies, light winds, and low dew points in the low teens Celsius are expected to enhance radiational cooling overnight, allowing surface temperatures to drop efficiently under the dry continental air mass typical of the region. Recent model consensus from multiple sources shows overnight lows settling around 16–20°C, aligning with climatological normals of roughly 16–17°C for the date while reflecting a slightly cooler-than-average August pattern observed so far. With the event only two days away, the next ECMWF or equivalent model runs will provide the final guidance on whether subtle shifts in cloud cover or wind could push the minimum above or below key thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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