Skip to main content
icon for Lowest temperature in Wellington on August 29?

Lowest temperature in Wellington on August 29?

icon for Lowest temperature in Wellington on August 29?

Lowest temperature in Wellington on August 29?

Aug 29

Aug 30

Aug 29

Aug 30

13°C 49%

10°C 27%

11°C 27%

9°C 26%

Polymarket
NEW

13°C 49%

10°C 27%

11°C 27%

9°C 26%

Polymarket
NEW

6°C or below

$16 Vol.

2%

7°C

$174 Vol.

2%

8°C

$72 Vol.

23%

9°C

$26 Vol.

26%

10°C

$0 Vol.

27%

11°C

$20 Vol.

27%

12°C

$16 Vol.

26%

13°C

$47 Vol.

49%

14°C

$5 Vol.

<1%

15°C

$30 Vol.

<1%

16°C or higher

$30 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent model consensus for Wellington on August 29 points to overnight lows of 9–10°C under clearing skies after strong northerly winds moderate, with MetService-aligned forecasts showing maxima near 13–14°C and minima around 9–10°C.** This setup favors trader positioning around 6°C or below (46% implied probability) as the leading outcome, driven by potential for enhanced radiational cooling if winds drop further overnight and cloud cover remains limited. Historical August minima average near 9–10°C, but variable steering patterns and sea-surface influences introduce uncertainty, reflected in clustered probabilities for 8–11°C outcomes (23–26.5%). Fresh ECMWF and GFS runs overnight will likely refine the exact threshold before resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn

If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.

This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$436
End Date
Aug 29, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:29 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent model consensus for Wellington on August 29 points to overnight lows of 9–10°C under clearing skies after strong northerly winds moderate, with MetService-aligned forecasts showing maxima near 13–14°C and minima around 9–10°C.** This setup favors trader positioning around 6°C or below (46% implied probability) as the leading outcome, driven by potential for enhanced radiational cooling if winds drop further overnight and cloud cover remains limited. Historical August minima average near 9–10°C, but variable steering patterns and sea-surface influences introduce uncertainty, reflected in clustered probabilities for 8–11°C outcomes (23–26.5%). Fresh ECMWF and GFS runs overnight will likely refine the exact threshold before resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn

If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.

This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$436
End Date
Aug 29, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:29 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Related

icon for Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 30?

Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 30?

32%
icon for Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 29?

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 29?

70%
icon for Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on August 30?

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on August 30?

52%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Lowest temperature in Wellington on August 29?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "10°C" at 27%, followed by "11°C" at 27%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 27¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Lowest temperature in Wellington on August 29?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 27, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Lowest temperature in Wellington on August 29?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Lowest temperature in Wellington on August 29?" is "10°C" at 27%, meaning the market assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "11°C" at 27%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Lowest temperature in Wellington on August 29?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.