Forecast model consensus for Sao Paulo's September 1 minimum remains closely split between 14°C or below and 16°C, reflecting uncertainty in short-range guidance from global ensembles. Recent surface observations show temperatures running near or slightly below early-spring climatology, driven by southerly cold-air advection and variable positioning of a subtropical ridge that modulates nocturnal cooling. Differing model solutions on boundary-layer moisture and wind speeds create the spread across these thresholds, while warmer outcomes sit at lower implied probabilities consistent with limited warming potential. Fresh runs from major centers expected within 24 hours will likely refine the outlook ahead of final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 1?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 1?
14°C or below 90%
24°C or higher 59%
16°C 48%
20°C 43%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
14°C or below
90%
15°C
26%
16°C
48%
17°C
26%
18°C
25%
19°C
22%
20°C
43%
21°C
38%
22°C
39%
23°C
39%
24°C or higher
59%
14°C or below 90%
24°C or higher 59%
16°C 48%
20°C 43%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
14°C or below
$0 Vol.
90%
15°C
$0 Vol.
26%
16°C
$0 Vol.
48%
17°C
$0 Vol.
26%
18°C
$0 Vol.
25%
19°C
$0 Vol.
22%
20°C
$0 Vol.
43%
21°C
$0 Vol.
38%
22°C
$0 Vol.
39%
23°C
$0 Vol.
39%
24°C or higher
$0 Vol.
59%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast model consensus for Sao Paulo's September 1 minimum remains closely split between 14°C or below and 16°C, reflecting uncertainty in short-range guidance from global ensembles. Recent surface observations show temperatures running near or slightly below early-spring climatology, driven by southerly cold-air advection and variable positioning of a subtropical ridge that modulates nocturnal cooling. Differing model solutions on boundary-layer moisture and wind speeds create the spread across these thresholds, while warmer outcomes sit at lower implied probabilities consistent with limited warming potential. Fresh runs from major centers expected within 24 hours will likely refine the outlook ahead of final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 30, 2026, 9:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 9:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast model consensus for Sao Paulo's September 1 minimum remains closely split between 14°C or below and 16°C, reflecting uncertainty in short-range guidance from global ensembles. Recent surface observations show temperatures running near or slightly below early-spring climatology, driven by southerly cold-air advection and variable positioning of a subtropical ridge that modulates nocturnal cooling. Differing model solutions on boundary-layer moisture and wind speeds create the spread across these thresholds, while warmer outcomes sit at lower implied probabilities consistent with limited warming potential. Fresh runs from major centers expected within 24 hours will likely refine the outlook ahead of final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 9:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast model consensus for Sao Paulo's September 1 minimum remains closely split between 14°C or below and 16°C, reflecting uncertainty in short-range guidance from global ensembles. Recent surface observations show temperatures running near or slightly below early-spring climatology, driven by southerly cold-air advection and variable positioning of a subtropical ridge that modulates nocturnal cooling. Differing model solutions on boundary-layer moisture and wind speeds create the spread across these thresholds, while warmer outcomes sit at lower implied probabilities consistent with limited warming potential. Fresh runs from major centers expected within 24 hours will likely refine the outlook ahead of final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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