An incoming Pacific storm system is the dominant driver behind the closely matched market probabilities for Seattle's September 3 high temperature, with 64-65°F and 66-67°F each implied at 30.5%. Persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and southerly flow are limiting daytime heating, keeping highs well below the late-summer climatological average of roughly 74°F. Official forecasts from multiple models converge on mid-60s readings under mostly overcast skies and periods of showers, though modest variations in timing or intensity of precipitation could nudge the peak a degree or two higher or lower. Traders appear to be weighting the latest model consensus heavily, with lower-probability outcomes reflecting the narrow uncertainty range typical for short-range temperature forecasts in this regime.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Seattle on September 3?
Highest temperature in Seattle on September 3?
64-65°F 31%
66-67°F 30%
68-69°F 15%
62-63°F 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
55°F or below
1%
56-57°F
1%
58-59°F
1%
60-61°F
6%
62-63°F
12%
64-65°F
31%
66-67°F
30%
68-69°F
15%
70-71°F
4%
72-73°F
1%
74°F or higher
2%
64-65°F 31%
66-67°F 30%
68-69°F 15%
62-63°F 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
55°F or below
$0 Vol.
1%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
1%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
1%
60-61°F
$5 Vol.
6%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
12%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
31%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
30%
68-69°F
$11 Vol.
15%
70-71°F
$249 Vol.
4%
72-73°F
$15 Vol.
1%
74°F or higher
$15 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.An incoming Pacific storm system is the dominant driver behind the closely matched market probabilities for Seattle's September 3 high temperature, with 64-65°F and 66-67°F each implied at 30.5%. Persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and southerly flow are limiting daytime heating, keeping highs well below the late-summer climatological average of roughly 74°F. Official forecasts from multiple models converge on mid-60s readings under mostly overcast skies and periods of showers, though modest variations in timing or intensity of precipitation could nudge the peak a degree or two higher or lower. Traders appear to be weighting the latest model consensus heavily, with lower-probability outcomes reflecting the narrow uncertainty range typical for short-range temperature forecasts in this regime.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 7:55 AM ET
Volume
$295End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 7:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kseaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.An incoming Pacific storm system is the dominant driver behind the closely matched market probabilities for Seattle's September 3 high temperature, with 64-65°F and 66-67°F each implied at 30.5%. Persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and southerly flow are limiting daytime heating, keeping highs well below the late-summer climatological average of roughly 74°F. Official forecasts from multiple models converge on mid-60s readings under mostly overcast skies and periods of showers, though modest variations in timing or intensity of precipitation could nudge the peak a degree or two higher or lower. Traders appear to be weighting the latest model consensus heavily, with lower-probability outcomes reflecting the narrow uncertainty range typical for short-range temperature forecasts in this regime.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$295End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 7:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kseaResolver
0x69c47De9D...An incoming Pacific storm system is the dominant driver behind the closely matched market probabilities for Seattle's September 3 high temperature, with 64-65°F and 66-67°F each implied at 30.5%. Persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and southerly flow are limiting daytime heating, keeping highs well below the late-summer climatological average of roughly 74°F. Official forecasts from multiple models converge on mid-60s readings under mostly overcast skies and periods of showers, though modest variations in timing or intensity of precipitation could nudge the peak a degree or two higher or lower. Traders appear to be weighting the latest model consensus heavily, with lower-probability outcomes reflecting the narrow uncertainty range typical for short-range temperature forecasts in this regime.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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