Current forecasts from the National Weather Service and supporting models indicate a Thursday high near 91–93°F in Houston, tempered by a 40–60% chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms that could suppress peak readings through increased cloud cover and evaporative cooling. High humidity and light southerly winds will sustain heat indices above 100°F where skies clear, but scattered convection—typical for early September—introduces uncertainty around whether maxima reach the upper 80s or low 90s. Historical averages near 91°F provide context, yet the market’s clustering around 86–89°F reflects trader emphasis on precipitation timing and model consensus for modest suppression rather than full insolation. Updated NWS guidance and afternoon radar trends over the next 48 hours will likely drive any sharp shifts in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on September 3?
Highest temperature in Houston on September 3?
88-89°F 38%
86-87°F 32%
90-91°F 15%
84-85°F 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
81°F or below
1%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
13%
86-87°F
32%
88-89°F
38%
90-91°F
15%
92-93°F
10%
94-95°F
4%
96-97°F
1%
98-99°F
1%
100°F or higher
<1%
88-89°F 38%
86-87°F 32%
90-91°F 15%
84-85°F 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
81°F or below
$0 Vol.
1%
82-83°F
$4 Vol.
1%
84-85°F
$10 Vol.
13%
86-87°F
$256 Vol.
32%
88-89°F
$32 Vol.
38%
90-91°F
$0 Vol.
15%
92-93°F
$7 Vol.
10%
94-95°F
$0 Vol.
4%
96-97°F
$0 Vol.
1%
98-99°F
$0 Vol.
1%
100°F or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from the National Weather Service and supporting models indicate a Thursday high near 91–93°F in Houston, tempered by a 40–60% chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms that could suppress peak readings through increased cloud cover and evaporative cooling. High humidity and light southerly winds will sustain heat indices above 100°F where skies clear, but scattered convection—typical for early September—introduces uncertainty around whether maxima reach the upper 80s or low 90s. Historical averages near 91°F provide context, yet the market’s clustering around 86–89°F reflects trader emphasis on precipitation timing and model consensus for modest suppression rather than full insolation. Updated NWS guidance and afternoon radar trends over the next 48 hours will likely drive any sharp shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$309End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from the National Weather Service and supporting models indicate a Thursday high near 91–93°F in Houston, tempered by a 40–60% chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms that could suppress peak readings through increased cloud cover and evaporative cooling. High humidity and light southerly winds will sustain heat indices above 100°F where skies clear, but scattered convection—typical for early September—introduces uncertainty around whether maxima reach the upper 80s or low 90s. Historical averages near 91°F provide context, yet the market’s clustering around 86–89°F reflects trader emphasis on precipitation timing and model consensus for modest suppression rather than full insolation. Updated NWS guidance and afternoon radar trends over the next 48 hours will likely drive any sharp shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$309End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from the National Weather Service and supporting models indicate a Thursday high near 91–93°F in Houston, tempered by a 40–60% chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms that could suppress peak readings through increased cloud cover and evaporative cooling. High humidity and light southerly winds will sustain heat indices above 100°F where skies clear, but scattered convection—typical for early September—introduces uncertainty around whether maxima reach the upper 80s or low 90s. Historical averages near 91°F provide context, yet the market’s clustering around 86–89°F reflects trader emphasis on precipitation timing and model consensus for modest suppression rather than full insolation. Updated NWS guidance and afternoon radar trends over the next 48 hours will likely drive any sharp shifts in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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