Recent short-range forecasts from MetService and global models show a high near 12–14°C for Wellington on September 1, driven by a northwest flow moderating overnight lows before a shift to southwesterlies brings cooler maritime air. Partly cloudy skies with a 30–40% rain chance may limit solar heating and cap the peak, consistent with early-spring climatology where daily maxima average 13–15°C. The market’s heavy weighting toward 13–14°C (82% combined) reflects trader consensus on these model outputs, with lower probabilities for 15°C or above tied to uncertainty in frontal timing and wind strength. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the exact maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on September 1?
Highest temperature in Wellington on September 1?
14°C 52%
13°C 31%
12°C 12%
15°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
1%
11°C
4%
12°C
12%
13°C
31%
14°C
52%
15°C
11%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
14°C 52%
13°C 31%
12°C 12%
15°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
8°C or below
$266 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$120 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$30 Vol.
1%
11°C
$0 Vol.
4%
12°C
$0 Vol.
12%
13°C
$97 Vol.
31%
14°C
$61 Vol.
52%
15°C
$10 Vol.
11%
16°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$71 Vol.
<1%
18°C or higher
$266 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from MetService and global models show a high near 12–14°C for Wellington on September 1, driven by a northwest flow moderating overnight lows before a shift to southwesterlies brings cooler maritime air. Partly cloudy skies with a 30–40% rain chance may limit solar heating and cap the peak, consistent with early-spring climatology where daily maxima average 13–15°C. The market’s heavy weighting toward 13–14°C (82% combined) reflects trader consensus on these model outputs, with lower probabilities for 15°C or above tied to uncertainty in frontal timing and wind strength. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the exact maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$921End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from MetService and global models show a high near 12–14°C for Wellington on September 1, driven by a northwest flow moderating overnight lows before a shift to southwesterlies brings cooler maritime air. Partly cloudy skies with a 30–40% rain chance may limit solar heating and cap the peak, consistent with early-spring climatology where daily maxima average 13–15°C. The market’s heavy weighting toward 13–14°C (82% combined) reflects trader consensus on these model outputs, with lower probabilities for 15°C or above tied to uncertainty in frontal timing and wind strength. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the exact maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$921End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range forecasts from MetService and global models show a high near 12–14°C for Wellington on September 1, driven by a northwest flow moderating overnight lows before a shift to southwesterlies brings cooler maritime air. Partly cloudy skies with a 30–40% rain chance may limit solar heating and cap the peak, consistent with early-spring climatology where daily maxima average 13–15°C. The market’s heavy weighting toward 13–14°C (82% combined) reflects trader consensus on these model outputs, with lower probabilities for 15°C or above tied to uncertainty in frontal timing and wind strength. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the exact maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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