Recent forecast model runs for Wellington show overnight lows on September 1 clustered around 6–10 °C, reflecting a transitional spring pattern where northerly flow has kept recent minima milder than climatological September averages near 8 °C. Key variables driving the near-even split between “12 °C or higher” and “2 °C or below” outcomes include uncertainty in the timing and strength of an approaching southerly change, variable cloud cover that could suppress radiative cooling, and differences among ensemble members in boundary-layer mixing. Official guidance from MetService and international models (ECMWF, GFS) currently favors minima near 7–8 °C under partly cloudy, breezy conditions, but small shifts in front arrival or wind speed could easily push readings several degrees either way before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on September 1?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 1?
2°C or below 94%
12°C or higher 92%
9°C 49%
3°C 47%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
2°C or below
94%
3°C
47%
4°C
47%
5°C
25%
6°C
27%
7°C
28%
8°C
25%
9°C
49%
10°C
8%
11°C
8%
12°C or higher
92%
2°C or below 94%
12°C or higher 92%
9°C 49%
3°C 47%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
2°C or below
$0 Vol.
94%
3°C
$0 Vol.
47%
4°C
$0 Vol.
47%
5°C
$0 Vol.
25%
6°C
$0 Vol.
27%
7°C
$0 Vol.
28%
8°C
$0 Vol.
25%
9°C
$0 Vol.
49%
10°C
$0 Vol.
8%
11°C
$0 Vol.
8%
12°C or higher
$0 Vol.
92%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs for Wellington show overnight lows on September 1 clustered around 6–10 °C, reflecting a transitional spring pattern where northerly flow has kept recent minima milder than climatological September averages near 8 °C. Key variables driving the near-even split between “12 °C or higher” and “2 °C or below” outcomes include uncertainty in the timing and strength of an approaching southerly change, variable cloud cover that could suppress radiative cooling, and differences among ensemble members in boundary-layer mixing. Official guidance from MetService and international models (ECMWF, GFS) currently favors minima near 7–8 °C under partly cloudy, breezy conditions, but small shifts in front arrival or wind speed could easily push readings several degrees either way before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 30, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs for Wellington show overnight lows on September 1 clustered around 6–10 °C, reflecting a transitional spring pattern where northerly flow has kept recent minima milder than climatological September averages near 8 °C. Key variables driving the near-even split between “12 °C or higher” and “2 °C or below” outcomes include uncertainty in the timing and strength of an approaching southerly change, variable cloud cover that could suppress radiative cooling, and differences among ensemble members in boundary-layer mixing. Official guidance from MetService and international models (ECMWF, GFS) currently favors minima near 7–8 °C under partly cloudy, breezy conditions, but small shifts in front arrival or wind speed could easily push readings several degrees either way before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model runs for Wellington show overnight lows on September 1 clustered around 6–10 °C, reflecting a transitional spring pattern where northerly flow has kept recent minima milder than climatological September averages near 8 °C. Key variables driving the near-even split between “12 °C or higher” and “2 °C or below” outcomes include uncertainty in the timing and strength of an approaching southerly change, variable cloud cover that could suppress radiative cooling, and differences among ensemble members in boundary-layer mixing. Official guidance from MetService and international models (ECMWF, GFS) currently favors minima near 7–8 °C under partly cloudy, breezy conditions, but small shifts in front arrival or wind speed could easily push readings several degrees either way before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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