Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for Austin on September 3 shows mid-90s highs amid moderate instability and 40-50% thunderstorm chances, with afternoon convection and cloud cover as the main variables that could limit peak readings. Southerly flow advecting Gulf moisture supports scattered storms that may develop after peak heating, while drier air aloft and modest wind shear introduce spread across 94-98°F outcomes. Historical late-summer climatology places normal highs near 94°F, but recent warm anomalies and variable model solutions for boundary-layer mixing keep the distribution relatively flat. Updated NWS forecasts and 00Z/12Z model runs over the next 48 hours will refine timing of any convective initiation and directly inform resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on September 3?
Highest temperature in Austin on September 3?
96-97°F 35%
94-95°F 28%
98-99°F 20%
92-93°F 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
85°F or below
1%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
8%
90-91°F
9%
92-93°F
12%
94-95°F
28%
96-97°F
35%
98-99°F
20%
100-101°F
10%
102-103°F
6%
104°F or higher
2%
96-97°F 35%
94-95°F 28%
98-99°F 20%
92-93°F 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
85°F or below
$0 Vol.
1%
86-87°F
$10 Vol.
1%
88-89°F
$72 Vol.
8%
90-91°F
$15 Vol.
9%
92-93°F
$0 Vol.
12%
94-95°F
$80 Vol.
28%
96-97°F
$0 Vol.
35%
98-99°F
$27 Vol.
20%
100-101°F
$8 Vol.
10%
102-103°F
$7 Vol.
6%
104°F or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for Austin on September 3 shows mid-90s highs amid moderate instability and 40-50% thunderstorm chances, with afternoon convection and cloud cover as the main variables that could limit peak readings. Southerly flow advecting Gulf moisture supports scattered storms that may develop after peak heating, while drier air aloft and modest wind shear introduce spread across 94-98°F outcomes. Historical late-summer climatology places normal highs near 94°F, but recent warm anomalies and variable model solutions for boundary-layer mixing keep the distribution relatively flat. Updated NWS forecasts and 00Z/12Z model runs over the next 48 hours will refine timing of any convective initiation and directly inform resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 2:56 AM ET
Volume
$218End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for Austin on September 3 shows mid-90s highs amid moderate instability and 40-50% thunderstorm chances, with afternoon convection and cloud cover as the main variables that could limit peak readings. Southerly flow advecting Gulf moisture supports scattered storms that may develop after peak heating, while drier air aloft and modest wind shear introduce spread across 94-98°F outcomes. Historical late-summer climatology places normal highs near 94°F, but recent warm anomalies and variable model solutions for boundary-layer mixing keep the distribution relatively flat. Updated NWS forecasts and 00Z/12Z model runs over the next 48 hours will refine timing of any convective initiation and directly inform resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$218End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for Austin on September 3 shows mid-90s highs amid moderate instability and 40-50% thunderstorm chances, with afternoon convection and cloud cover as the main variables that could limit peak readings. Southerly flow advecting Gulf moisture supports scattered storms that may develop after peak heating, while drier air aloft and modest wind shear introduce spread across 94-98°F outcomes. Historical late-summer climatology places normal highs near 94°F, but recent warm anomalies and variable model solutions for boundary-layer mixing keep the distribution relatively flat. Updated NWS forecasts and 00Z/12Z model runs over the next 48 hours will refine timing of any convective initiation and directly inform resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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