Recent cold front passage over southeastern Brazil has lowered temperatures in São Paulo, with overnight minima near 12–13 °C on September 2–3. Forecast models from sources including Climatempo, INMET, and international ensembles now indicate moderating conditions for September 4, with the daily minimum likely falling between 15–17 °C under partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and possible evening showers that could enhance radiative cooling. Historical September averages near 12 °C provide context, yet current steering patterns and limited model spread around the 15–17 °C range explain why market-implied probabilities cluster tightly between 13 °C or below and 23 °C or higher, with traders weighing residual cold-air advection against rapid warming. Updated model runs overnight will refine the exact low before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 4?
23°C or higher 84%
21°C 49%
22°C 49%
13°C or below 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
13°C or below
40%
14°C
27%
15°C
28%
16°C
29%
17°C
27%
18°C
24%
19°C
20%
20°C
22%
21°C
49%
22°C
49%
23°C or higher
84%
23°C or higher 84%
21°C 49%
22°C 49%
13°C or below 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
13°C or below
$0 Vol.
40%
14°C
$0 Vol.
27%
15°C
$0 Vol.
28%
16°C
$3 Vol.
29%
17°C
$0 Vol.
27%
18°C
$87 Vol.
24%
19°C
$0 Vol.
20%
20°C
$0 Vol.
22%
21°C
$0 Vol.
49%
22°C
$0 Vol.
49%
23°C or higher
$0 Vol.
84%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent cold front passage over southeastern Brazil has lowered temperatures in São Paulo, with overnight minima near 12–13 °C on September 2–3. Forecast models from sources including Climatempo, INMET, and international ensembles now indicate moderating conditions for September 4, with the daily minimum likely falling between 15–17 °C under partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and possible evening showers that could enhance radiative cooling. Historical September averages near 12 °C provide context, yet current steering patterns and limited model spread around the 15–17 °C range explain why market-implied probabilities cluster tightly between 13 °C or below and 23 °C or higher, with traders weighing residual cold-air advection against rapid warming. Updated model runs overnight will refine the exact low before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 8:28 AM ET
Volume
$90End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 8:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent cold front passage over southeastern Brazil has lowered temperatures in São Paulo, with overnight minima near 12–13 °C on September 2–3. Forecast models from sources including Climatempo, INMET, and international ensembles now indicate moderating conditions for September 4, with the daily minimum likely falling between 15–17 °C under partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and possible evening showers that could enhance radiative cooling. Historical September averages near 12 °C provide context, yet current steering patterns and limited model spread around the 15–17 °C range explain why market-implied probabilities cluster tightly between 13 °C or below and 23 °C or higher, with traders weighing residual cold-air advection against rapid warming. Updated model runs overnight will refine the exact low before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$90End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 8:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent cold front passage over southeastern Brazil has lowered temperatures in São Paulo, with overnight minima near 12–13 °C on September 2–3. Forecast models from sources including Climatempo, INMET, and international ensembles now indicate moderating conditions for September 4, with the daily minimum likely falling between 15–17 °C under partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and possible evening showers that could enhance radiative cooling. Historical September averages near 12 °C provide context, yet current steering patterns and limited model spread around the 15–17 °C range explain why market-implied probabilities cluster tightly between 13 °C or below and 23 °C or higher, with traders weighing residual cold-air advection against rapid warming. Updated model runs overnight will refine the exact low before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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