Recent model consensus from sources including GFS and ECMWF points to a maximum of 29–31 °C in Shanghai on September 3, driven by increasing northeasterly flow, higher humidity, and scattered showers that reduce solar heating compared with the clearer, hotter conditions of September 1. Afternoon cloud cover and light rain expected under these patterns typically cap temperatures near the lower end of that range, supporting the narrow market edge for 30 °C over 31 °C. Minor differences among ensemble members hinge on the precise timing of any convective cells and boundary-layer mixing, which could shift the daily peak by 1 °C either way. Updated short-range guidance over the next 48 hours will refine these details ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on September 3?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on September 3?
30°C 41%
31°C 36%
29°C 11%
28°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
9%
29°C
11%
30°C
41%
31°C
36%
32°C
5%
33°C
1%
34°C
1%
35°C or higher
<1%
30°C 41%
31°C 36%
29°C 11%
28°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
25°C or below
$590 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$201 Vol.
1%
27°C
$28 Vol.
1%
28°C
$42 Vol.
9%
29°C
$79 Vol.
11%
30°C
$217 Vol.
41%
31°C
$124 Vol.
36%
32°C
$150 Vol.
5%
33°C
$5 Vol.
1%
34°C
$5 Vol.
1%
35°C or higher
$253 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources including GFS and ECMWF points to a maximum of 29–31 °C in Shanghai on September 3, driven by increasing northeasterly flow, higher humidity, and scattered showers that reduce solar heating compared with the clearer, hotter conditions of September 1. Afternoon cloud cover and light rain expected under these patterns typically cap temperatures near the lower end of that range, supporting the narrow market edge for 30 °C over 31 °C. Minor differences among ensemble members hinge on the precise timing of any convective cells and boundary-layer mixing, which could shift the daily peak by 1 °C either way. Updated short-range guidance over the next 48 hours will refine these details ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,694End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources including GFS and ECMWF points to a maximum of 29–31 °C in Shanghai on September 3, driven by increasing northeasterly flow, higher humidity, and scattered showers that reduce solar heating compared with the clearer, hotter conditions of September 1. Afternoon cloud cover and light rain expected under these patterns typically cap temperatures near the lower end of that range, supporting the narrow market edge for 30 °C over 31 °C. Minor differences among ensemble members hinge on the precise timing of any convective cells and boundary-layer mixing, which could shift the daily peak by 1 °C either way. Updated short-range guidance over the next 48 hours will refine these details ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,694End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from sources including GFS and ECMWF points to a maximum of 29–31 °C in Shanghai on September 3, driven by increasing northeasterly flow, higher humidity, and scattered showers that reduce solar heating compared with the clearer, hotter conditions of September 1. Afternoon cloud cover and light rain expected under these patterns typically cap temperatures near the lower end of that range, supporting the narrow market edge for 30 °C over 31 °C. Minor differences among ensemble members hinge on the precise timing of any convective cells and boundary-layer mixing, which could shift the daily peak by 1 °C either way. Updated short-range guidance over the next 48 hours will refine these details ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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