Recent short-range model consensus from sources like GFS and ECMWF indicates a highest temperature in Tokyo on September 3 most likely between 29–32 °C, with afternoon peaks tempered by increasing cloud cover, southerly flow, and 50–70 % thunderstorm probability that could suppress maximum readings through evaporative cooling and reduced insolation. This aligns with early-September climatology near 28–30 °C while reflecting modest residual warmth from late-summer patterns. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread among leading outcomes against model spread and potential timing of any convective activity, with official Japan Meteorological Agency updates and refined runs expected to narrow uncertainty ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 3?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 3?
30°C 33%
31°C 25%
29°C 19%
28°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
6%
28°C
10%
29°C
19%
30°C
33%
31°C
25%
32°C
8%
33°C
3%
34°C
3%
35°C or higher
1%
30°C 33%
31°C 25%
29°C 19%
28°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
25°C or below
$510 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$207 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$14 Vol.
6%
28°C
$64 Vol.
10%
29°C
$108 Vol.
19%
30°C
$15 Vol.
33%
31°C
$5 Vol.
25%
32°C
$2 Vol.
8%
33°C
$0 Vol.
3%
34°C
$0 Vol.
3%
35°C or higher
$5 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range model consensus from sources like GFS and ECMWF indicates a highest temperature in Tokyo on September 3 most likely between 29–32 °C, with afternoon peaks tempered by increasing cloud cover, southerly flow, and 50–70 % thunderstorm probability that could suppress maximum readings through evaporative cooling and reduced insolation. This aligns with early-September climatology near 28–30 °C while reflecting modest residual warmth from late-summer patterns. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread among leading outcomes against model spread and potential timing of any convective activity, with official Japan Meteorological Agency updates and refined runs expected to narrow uncertainty ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$930End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range model consensus from sources like GFS and ECMWF indicates a highest temperature in Tokyo on September 3 most likely between 29–32 °C, with afternoon peaks tempered by increasing cloud cover, southerly flow, and 50–70 % thunderstorm probability that could suppress maximum readings through evaporative cooling and reduced insolation. This aligns with early-September climatology near 28–30 °C while reflecting modest residual warmth from late-summer patterns. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread among leading outcomes against model spread and potential timing of any convective activity, with official Japan Meteorological Agency updates and refined runs expected to narrow uncertainty ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$930End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range model consensus from sources like GFS and ECMWF indicates a highest temperature in Tokyo on September 3 most likely between 29–32 °C, with afternoon peaks tempered by increasing cloud cover, southerly flow, and 50–70 % thunderstorm probability that could suppress maximum readings through evaporative cooling and reduced insolation. This aligns with early-September climatology near 28–30 °C while reflecting modest residual warmth from late-summer patterns. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread among leading outcomes against model spread and potential timing of any convective activity, with official Japan Meteorological Agency updates and refined runs expected to narrow uncertainty ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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