Recent forecasts from multiple models show Tokyo's overnight low on September 3 likely ranging 22–26°C amid increasing clouds, high humidity near 85–90%, and a 50–85% chance of showers or thunderstorms as a weather system approaches from the south. Southerly winds and potential rain-cooled air could support the market's leading 24–25°C outcomes, while clearer breaks or urban heat retention might hold temperatures nearer 26°C. Model spread centers on exact precipitation timing and cloud cover overnight, creating the tight clustering around 24–25°C with meaningful support for 21°C or below if heavier rain arrives earlier. Historical September baselines near 23–24°C provide context, but short-range updates from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency will refine the final minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 3?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 3?
31°C or higher 42%
24°C 42%
25°C 41%
21°C or below 20%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
21°C or below
20%
22°C
9%
23°C
16%
24°C
42%
25°C
41%
26°C
12%
27°C
9%
28°C
18%
29°C
1%
30°C
2%
31°C or higher
42%
31°C or higher 42%
24°C 42%
25°C 41%
21°C or below 20%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
20%
22°C
$42 Vol.
9%
23°C
$0 Vol.
16%
24°C
$0 Vol.
42%
25°C
$0 Vol.
41%
26°C
$0 Vol.
12%
27°C
$40 Vol.
9%
28°C
$21 Vol.
18%
29°C
$5 Vol.
1%
30°C
$5 Vol.
2%
31°C or higher
$5 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models show Tokyo's overnight low on September 3 likely ranging 22–26°C amid increasing clouds, high humidity near 85–90%, and a 50–85% chance of showers or thunderstorms as a weather system approaches from the south. Southerly winds and potential rain-cooled air could support the market's leading 24–25°C outcomes, while clearer breaks or urban heat retention might hold temperatures nearer 26°C. Model spread centers on exact precipitation timing and cloud cover overnight, creating the tight clustering around 24–25°C with meaningful support for 21°C or below if heavier rain arrives earlier. Historical September baselines near 23–24°C provide context, but short-range updates from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency will refine the final minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$118End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models show Tokyo's overnight low on September 3 likely ranging 22–26°C amid increasing clouds, high humidity near 85–90%, and a 50–85% chance of showers or thunderstorms as a weather system approaches from the south. Southerly winds and potential rain-cooled air could support the market's leading 24–25°C outcomes, while clearer breaks or urban heat retention might hold temperatures nearer 26°C. Model spread centers on exact precipitation timing and cloud cover overnight, creating the tight clustering around 24–25°C with meaningful support for 21°C or below if heavier rain arrives earlier. Historical September baselines near 23–24°C provide context, but short-range updates from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency will refine the final minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$118End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models show Tokyo's overnight low on September 3 likely ranging 22–26°C amid increasing clouds, high humidity near 85–90%, and a 50–85% chance of showers or thunderstorms as a weather system approaches from the south. Southerly winds and potential rain-cooled air could support the market's leading 24–25°C outcomes, while clearer breaks or urban heat retention might hold temperatures nearer 26°C. Model spread centers on exact precipitation timing and cloud cover overnight, creating the tight clustering around 24–25°C with meaningful support for 21°C or below if heavier rain arrives earlier. Historical September baselines near 23–24°C provide context, but short-range updates from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency will refine the final minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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