Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Mexico City nighttime lows near 12–15°C on September 4, driven by typical early-fall radiative cooling at the city’s 2,240 m elevation amid scattered showers and variable cloud cover. Precipitation and clouds limit heat loss by trapping longwave radiation, favoring milder minima around 14°C, while clearer intervals could allow greater cooling toward 11–12°C. Trader positioning reflects this narrow range of outcomes alongside modest probabilities for extremes, as model ensembles show limited spread but remain sensitive to timing of any rain bands. Updated GFS and ECMWF runs over the next 48 hours will refine the exact overnight minimum ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Mexico City on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Mexico City on September 4?
17°C or higher 89%
7°C or below 78%
8°C 48%
9°C 48%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
7°C or below
78%
8°C
48%
9°C
48%
10°C
25%
11°C
31%
12°C
27%
13°C
27%
14°C
46%
15°C
27%
16°C
48%
17°C or higher
89%
17°C or higher 89%
7°C or below 78%
8°C 48%
9°C 48%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
7°C or below
$0 Vol.
78%
8°C
$0 Vol.
48%
9°C
$0 Vol.
48%
10°C
$0 Vol.
25%
11°C
$0 Vol.
31%
12°C
$0 Vol.
27%
13°C
$0 Vol.
27%
14°C
$0 Vol.
46%
15°C
$0 Vol.
27%
16°C
$0 Vol.
48%
17°C or higher
$0 Vol.
89%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Mexico City nighttime lows near 12–15°C on September 4, driven by typical early-fall radiative cooling at the city’s 2,240 m elevation amid scattered showers and variable cloud cover. Precipitation and clouds limit heat loss by trapping longwave radiation, favoring milder minima around 14°C, while clearer intervals could allow greater cooling toward 11–12°C. Trader positioning reflects this narrow range of outcomes alongside modest probabilities for extremes, as model ensembles show limited spread but remain sensitive to timing of any rain bands. Updated GFS and ECMWF runs over the next 48 hours will refine the exact overnight minimum ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Mexico City nighttime lows near 12–15°C on September 4, driven by typical early-fall radiative cooling at the city’s 2,240 m elevation amid scattered showers and variable cloud cover. Precipitation and clouds limit heat loss by trapping longwave radiation, favoring milder minima around 14°C, while clearer intervals could allow greater cooling toward 11–12°C. Trader positioning reflects this narrow range of outcomes alongside modest probabilities for extremes, as model ensembles show limited spread but remain sensitive to timing of any rain bands. Updated GFS and ECMWF runs over the next 48 hours will refine the exact overnight minimum ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Mexico City nighttime lows near 12–15°C on September 4, driven by typical early-fall radiative cooling at the city’s 2,240 m elevation amid scattered showers and variable cloud cover. Precipitation and clouds limit heat loss by trapping longwave radiation, favoring milder minima around 14°C, while clearer intervals could allow greater cooling toward 11–12°C. Trader positioning reflects this narrow range of outcomes alongside modest probabilities for extremes, as model ensembles show limited spread but remain sensitive to timing of any rain bands. Updated GFS and ECMWF runs over the next 48 hours will refine the exact overnight minimum ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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