Recent model runs and official guidance from sources like INMET indicate post-frontal warming across São Paulo state, with northwest flow and reduced cloud cover supporting afternoon highs in the upper 20s to low 30s °C on September 4. Ensemble forecasts cluster near 28–29 °C after cooler conditions on the 2nd–3rd, though scattered afternoon convection could modestly limit peak readings. This aligns with the market’s heaviest implied probabilities on 28–30 °C outcomes, reflecting trader weighting of numerical guidance over seasonal September averages near 23–25 °C. Updated short-range model runs and local observations in the next 48 hours will refine the final maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 4?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 4?
29°C 39%
28°C 27%
30°C 18%
26°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
23°C or below
4%
24°C
4%
25°C
3%
26°C
7%
27°C
6%
28°C
27%
29°C
39%
30°C
18%
31°C
4%
32°C
6%
33°C or higher
6%
29°C 39%
28°C 27%
30°C 18%
26°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
23°C or below
$0 Vol.
4%
24°C
$0 Vol.
4%
25°C
$35 Vol.
3%
26°C
$36 Vol.
7%
27°C
$86 Vol.
6%
28°C
$93 Vol.
27%
29°C
$98 Vol.
39%
30°C
$250 Vol.
18%
31°C
$16 Vol.
4%
32°C
$0 Vol.
6%
33°C or higher
$0 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs and official guidance from sources like INMET indicate post-frontal warming across São Paulo state, with northwest flow and reduced cloud cover supporting afternoon highs in the upper 20s to low 30s °C on September 4. Ensemble forecasts cluster near 28–29 °C after cooler conditions on the 2nd–3rd, though scattered afternoon convection could modestly limit peak readings. This aligns with the market’s heaviest implied probabilities on 28–30 °C outcomes, reflecting trader weighting of numerical guidance over seasonal September averages near 23–25 °C. Updated short-range model runs and local observations in the next 48 hours will refine the final maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 8:55 AM ET
Volume
$575End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs and official guidance from sources like INMET indicate post-frontal warming across São Paulo state, with northwest flow and reduced cloud cover supporting afternoon highs in the upper 20s to low 30s °C on September 4. Ensemble forecasts cluster near 28–29 °C after cooler conditions on the 2nd–3rd, though scattered afternoon convection could modestly limit peak readings. This aligns with the market’s heaviest implied probabilities on 28–30 °C outcomes, reflecting trader weighting of numerical guidance over seasonal September averages near 23–25 °C. Updated short-range model runs and local observations in the next 48 hours will refine the final maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$575End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model runs and official guidance from sources like INMET indicate post-frontal warming across São Paulo state, with northwest flow and reduced cloud cover supporting afternoon highs in the upper 20s to low 30s °C on September 4. Ensemble forecasts cluster near 28–29 °C after cooler conditions on the 2nd–3rd, though scattered afternoon convection could modestly limit peak readings. This aligns with the market’s heaviest implied probabilities on 28–30 °C outcomes, reflecting trader weighting of numerical guidance over seasonal September averages near 23–25 °C. Updated short-range model runs and local observations in the next 48 hours will refine the final maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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