Current forecasts from multiple models indicate a daytime high near 26–27°C for Mexico City on September 4, aligning with market-implied odds favoring those outcomes. At 2,240 m elevation, the highland climate typically sees September maxima around 23–24°C, but recent model runs suggest slightly warmer conditions due to reduced cloud cover during peak heating hours and lighter winds limiting mixing. Afternoon thunderstorms, common in the rainy season, could cap temperatures through evaporative cooling and increased albedo, creating the narrow spread between 26°C and 27°C. Traders weigh these variables against historical variability, where brief clear spells allow modest exceedances of seasonal norms while persistent moisture keeps readings in check. Updated model guidance ahead of resolution will refine the distinction.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on September 4?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on September 4?
26°C 46%
27°C 37%
25°C 9%
28°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
19°C or below
1%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
2%
23°C
3%
24°C
5%
25°C
9%
26°C
46%
27°C
37%
28°C
6%
29°C or higher
3%
26°C 46%
27°C 37%
25°C 9%
28°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
19°C or below
$0 Vol.
1%
20°C
$0 Vol.
1%
21°C
$0 Vol.
1%
22°C
$100 Vol.
2%
23°C
$29 Vol.
3%
24°C
$64 Vol.
5%
25°C
$90 Vol.
9%
26°C
$1,056 Vol.
46%
27°C
$140 Vol.
37%
28°C
$15 Vol.
6%
29°C or higher
$40 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models indicate a daytime high near 26–27°C for Mexico City on September 4, aligning with market-implied odds favoring those outcomes. At 2,240 m elevation, the highland climate typically sees September maxima around 23–24°C, but recent model runs suggest slightly warmer conditions due to reduced cloud cover during peak heating hours and lighter winds limiting mixing. Afternoon thunderstorms, common in the rainy season, could cap temperatures through evaporative cooling and increased albedo, creating the narrow spread between 26°C and 27°C. Traders weigh these variables against historical variability, where brief clear spells allow modest exceedances of seasonal norms while persistent moisture keeps readings in check. Updated model guidance ahead of resolution will refine the distinction.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 8:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,530End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models indicate a daytime high near 26–27°C for Mexico City on September 4, aligning with market-implied odds favoring those outcomes. At 2,240 m elevation, the highland climate typically sees September maxima around 23–24°C, but recent model runs suggest slightly warmer conditions due to reduced cloud cover during peak heating hours and lighter winds limiting mixing. Afternoon thunderstorms, common in the rainy season, could cap temperatures through evaporative cooling and increased albedo, creating the narrow spread between 26°C and 27°C. Traders weigh these variables against historical variability, where brief clear spells allow modest exceedances of seasonal norms while persistent moisture keeps readings in check. Updated model guidance ahead of resolution will refine the distinction.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,530End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from multiple models indicate a daytime high near 26–27°C for Mexico City on September 4, aligning with market-implied odds favoring those outcomes. At 2,240 m elevation, the highland climate typically sees September maxima around 23–24°C, but recent model runs suggest slightly warmer conditions due to reduced cloud cover during peak heating hours and lighter winds limiting mixing. Afternoon thunderstorms, common in the rainy season, could cap temperatures through evaporative cooling and increased albedo, creating the narrow spread between 26°C and 27°C. Traders weigh these variables against historical variability, where brief clear spells allow modest exceedances of seasonal norms while persistent moisture keeps readings in check. Updated model guidance ahead of resolution will refine the distinction.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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