Trader consensus around 26–27°C for Tokyo’s September 4 high reflects model agreement on a frontal passage and increased cloud cover that will limit daytime heating after warmer conditions earlier in the week. Official guidance from agencies such as the Japan Meteorological Agency indicates northerly flow, widespread rain, and dew points near 22–24°C, which together cap maximum temperatures several degrees below the early-September climatological average of roughly 29°C. Ensemble spreads remain modest, with only modest upside risk if breaks in cloud allow brief insolation; downside scenarios hinge on heavier or prolonged precipitation. Updated short-range model runs and surface observations expected over the next 24–48 hours will provide the final constraints before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 4?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 4?
27°C 35%
26°C 28%
28°C 16%
25°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
21°C or below
2%
22°C
2%
23°C
2%
24°C
3%
25°C
9%
26°C
28%
27°C
35%
28°C
16%
29°C
5%
30°C
3%
31°C or higher
4%
27°C 35%
26°C 28%
28°C 16%
25°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
22°C
$0 Vol.
2%
23°C
$303 Vol.
2%
24°C
$437 Vol.
3%
25°C
$301 Vol.
9%
26°C
$57 Vol.
28%
27°C
$34 Vol.
35%
28°C
$197 Vol.
16%
29°C
$46 Vol.
5%
30°C
$13 Vol.
3%
31°C or higher
$0 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus around 26–27°C for Tokyo’s September 4 high reflects model agreement on a frontal passage and increased cloud cover that will limit daytime heating after warmer conditions earlier in the week. Official guidance from agencies such as the Japan Meteorological Agency indicates northerly flow, widespread rain, and dew points near 22–24°C, which together cap maximum temperatures several degrees below the early-September climatological average of roughly 29°C. Ensemble spreads remain modest, with only modest upside risk if breaks in cloud allow brief insolation; downside scenarios hinge on heavier or prolonged precipitation. Updated short-range model runs and surface observations expected over the next 24–48 hours will provide the final constraints before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,390End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus around 26–27°C for Tokyo’s September 4 high reflects model agreement on a frontal passage and increased cloud cover that will limit daytime heating after warmer conditions earlier in the week. Official guidance from agencies such as the Japan Meteorological Agency indicates northerly flow, widespread rain, and dew points near 22–24°C, which together cap maximum temperatures several degrees below the early-September climatological average of roughly 29°C. Ensemble spreads remain modest, with only modest upside risk if breaks in cloud allow brief insolation; downside scenarios hinge on heavier or prolonged precipitation. Updated short-range model runs and surface observations expected over the next 24–48 hours will provide the final constraints before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,390End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus around 26–27°C for Tokyo’s September 4 high reflects model agreement on a frontal passage and increased cloud cover that will limit daytime heating after warmer conditions earlier in the week. Official guidance from agencies such as the Japan Meteorological Agency indicates northerly flow, widespread rain, and dew points near 22–24°C, which together cap maximum temperatures several degrees below the early-September climatological average of roughly 29°C. Ensemble spreads remain modest, with only modest upside risk if breaks in cloud allow brief insolation; downside scenarios hinge on heavier or prolonged precipitation. Updated short-range model runs and surface observations expected over the next 24–48 hours will provide the final constraints before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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