Persistent southwest monsoon flow and widespread convective activity from an approaching low-pressure system are keeping maximum temperatures in Manila suppressed near seasonal norms for early September. Official PAGASA guidance and multiple models project a 30–31 °C peak on 4 September under 90–100 % rain and thunderstorm coverage, with thick cloud decks and evaporative cooling from frequent showers limiting surface heating. Historical climatology shows typical highs around 30–31 °C, but stronger winds and heavier rainfall would favor the lower end of that range while any brief clearing could allow brief spikes toward 32 °C. The narrow spread between the 30 °C and 31 °C contracts reflects genuine forecast uncertainty in storm timing and coverage, with the next model runs and PAGASA updates likely to sharpen the outcome before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on September 4?
Highest temperature in Manila on September 4?
31°C 46%
30°C 37%
29°C 12%
32°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
3%
27°C
2%
28°C
4%
29°C
12%
30°C
37%
31°C
46%
32°C
7%
33°C or higher
2%
31°C 46%
30°C 37%
29°C 12%
32°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
23°C or below
$102 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$292 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$352 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$173 Vol.
3%
27°C
$221 Vol.
2%
28°C
$20 Vol.
4%
29°C
$473 Vol.
12%
30°C
$45 Vol.
37%
31°C
$840 Vol.
46%
32°C
$196 Vol.
7%
33°C or higher
$77 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon flow and widespread convective activity from an approaching low-pressure system are keeping maximum temperatures in Manila suppressed near seasonal norms for early September. Official PAGASA guidance and multiple models project a 30–31 °C peak on 4 September under 90–100 % rain and thunderstorm coverage, with thick cloud decks and evaporative cooling from frequent showers limiting surface heating. Historical climatology shows typical highs around 30–31 °C, but stronger winds and heavier rainfall would favor the lower end of that range while any brief clearing could allow brief spikes toward 32 °C. The narrow spread between the 30 °C and 31 °C contracts reflects genuine forecast uncertainty in storm timing and coverage, with the next model runs and PAGASA updates likely to sharpen the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$2,790End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon flow and widespread convective activity from an approaching low-pressure system are keeping maximum temperatures in Manila suppressed near seasonal norms for early September. Official PAGASA guidance and multiple models project a 30–31 °C peak on 4 September under 90–100 % rain and thunderstorm coverage, with thick cloud decks and evaporative cooling from frequent showers limiting surface heating. Historical climatology shows typical highs around 30–31 °C, but stronger winds and heavier rainfall would favor the lower end of that range while any brief clearing could allow brief spikes toward 32 °C. The narrow spread between the 30 °C and 31 °C contracts reflects genuine forecast uncertainty in storm timing and coverage, with the next model runs and PAGASA updates likely to sharpen the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,790End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent southwest monsoon flow and widespread convective activity from an approaching low-pressure system are keeping maximum temperatures in Manila suppressed near seasonal norms for early September. Official PAGASA guidance and multiple models project a 30–31 °C peak on 4 September under 90–100 % rain and thunderstorm coverage, with thick cloud decks and evaporative cooling from frequent showers limiting surface heating. Historical climatology shows typical highs around 30–31 °C, but stronger winds and heavier rainfall would favor the lower end of that range while any brief clearing could allow brief spikes toward 32 °C. The narrow spread between the 30 °C and 31 °C contracts reflects genuine forecast uncertainty in storm timing and coverage, with the next model runs and PAGASA updates likely to sharpen the outcome before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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