Active southwest monsoon flows and lingering effects from recent storms and tropical systems are keeping Manila under persistent cloud cover and scattered to widespread rain through September 3, moderating both daytime maxima and nighttime minima. Official PAGASA guidance and ensemble model runs indicate lows near 25–27 °C under humid, overcast conditions that limit radiative cooling while also suppressing peak solar heating. Ongoing El Niño conditions in the Pacific add longer-term context for potentially drier tendencies, yet the immediate steering pattern favors continued moisture influx from the southwest. This setup creates tight uncertainty around the exact minimum, with traders balancing the chance of brief clear spells allowing slightly cooler readings against sustained cloudiness that anchors temperatures closer to seasonal norms of roughly 25–26 °C. Updated model runs and PAGASA briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on September 3?
Lowest temperature in Manila on September 3?
21°C or below 69%
31°C or higher 69%
23°C 49%
29°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
21°C or below
69%
22°C
18%
23°C
49%
24°C
25%
25°C
28%
26°C
28%
27°C
28%
28°C
25%
29°C
49%
30°C
29%
31°C or higher
69%
21°C or below 69%
31°C or higher 69%
23°C 49%
29°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
21°C or below
$5 Vol.
69%
22°C
$5 Vol.
18%
23°C
$5 Vol.
49%
24°C
$0 Vol.
25%
25°C
$0 Vol.
28%
26°C
$0 Vol.
28%
27°C
$0 Vol.
28%
28°C
$0 Vol.
25%
29°C
$5 Vol.
49%
30°C
$5 Vol.
29%
31°C or higher
$5 Vol.
69%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Active southwest monsoon flows and lingering effects from recent storms and tropical systems are keeping Manila under persistent cloud cover and scattered to widespread rain through September 3, moderating both daytime maxima and nighttime minima. Official PAGASA guidance and ensemble model runs indicate lows near 25–27 °C under humid, overcast conditions that limit radiative cooling while also suppressing peak solar heating. Ongoing El Niño conditions in the Pacific add longer-term context for potentially drier tendencies, yet the immediate steering pattern favors continued moisture influx from the southwest. This setup creates tight uncertainty around the exact minimum, with traders balancing the chance of brief clear spells allowing slightly cooler readings against sustained cloudiness that anchors temperatures closer to seasonal norms of roughly 25–26 °C. Updated model runs and PAGASA briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$30End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Active southwest monsoon flows and lingering effects from recent storms and tropical systems are keeping Manila under persistent cloud cover and scattered to widespread rain through September 3, moderating both daytime maxima and nighttime minima. Official PAGASA guidance and ensemble model runs indicate lows near 25–27 °C under humid, overcast conditions that limit radiative cooling while also suppressing peak solar heating. Ongoing El Niño conditions in the Pacific add longer-term context for potentially drier tendencies, yet the immediate steering pattern favors continued moisture influx from the southwest. This setup creates tight uncertainty around the exact minimum, with traders balancing the chance of brief clear spells allowing slightly cooler readings against sustained cloudiness that anchors temperatures closer to seasonal norms of roughly 25–26 °C. Updated model runs and PAGASA briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$30End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Active southwest monsoon flows and lingering effects from recent storms and tropical systems are keeping Manila under persistent cloud cover and scattered to widespread rain through September 3, moderating both daytime maxima and nighttime minima. Official PAGASA guidance and ensemble model runs indicate lows near 25–27 °C under humid, overcast conditions that limit radiative cooling while also suppressing peak solar heating. Ongoing El Niño conditions in the Pacific add longer-term context for potentially drier tendencies, yet the immediate steering pattern favors continued moisture influx from the southwest. This setup creates tight uncertainty around the exact minimum, with traders balancing the chance of brief clear spells allowing slightly cooler readings against sustained cloudiness that anchors temperatures closer to seasonal norms of roughly 25–26 °C. Updated model runs and PAGASA briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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