With two days until September 4, forecast uncertainty around Manila’s nighttime minimum is driving closely matched market odds between extremes and mid-range values. The southwest monsoon continues delivering variable cloud cover, humidity, and scattered showers across Luzon, limiting radiative cooling and favoring lows near 24–27 °C. Model spreads between GFS and ECMWF remain wide on the timing of any clearer intervals or heavier rain bands that could push temperatures below 23 °C or hold them above 29 °C. PAGASA climatology shows typical September minima around 24 °C, but short-term shifts in boundary-layer moisture and wind speed can alter the outcome by several degrees before the daily low is recorded. Traders are monitoring the next model cycles and official guidance for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Manila on September 4?
21°C or below 69%
31°C or higher 69%
23°C 49%
24°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
21°C or below
69%
22°C
24%
23°C
49%
24°C
49%
25°C
49%
26°C
28%
27°C
27%
28°C
49%
29°C
49%
30°C
2%
31°C or higher
69%
21°C or below 69%
31°C or higher 69%
23°C 49%
24°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
69%
22°C
$0 Vol.
24%
23°C
$0 Vol.
49%
24°C
$0 Vol.
49%
25°C
$0 Vol.
49%
26°C
$0 Vol.
28%
27°C
$0 Vol.
27%
28°C
$0 Vol.
49%
29°C
$0 Vol.
49%
30°C
$0 Vol.
2%
31°C or higher
$0 Vol.
69%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.With two days until September 4, forecast uncertainty around Manila’s nighttime minimum is driving closely matched market odds between extremes and mid-range values. The southwest monsoon continues delivering variable cloud cover, humidity, and scattered showers across Luzon, limiting radiative cooling and favoring lows near 24–27 °C. Model spreads between GFS and ECMWF remain wide on the timing of any clearer intervals or heavier rain bands that could push temperatures below 23 °C or hold them above 29 °C. PAGASA climatology shows typical September minima around 24 °C, but short-term shifts in boundary-layer moisture and wind speed can alter the outcome by several degrees before the daily low is recorded. Traders are monitoring the next model cycles and official guidance for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.With two days until September 4, forecast uncertainty around Manila’s nighttime minimum is driving closely matched market odds between extremes and mid-range values. The southwest monsoon continues delivering variable cloud cover, humidity, and scattered showers across Luzon, limiting radiative cooling and favoring lows near 24–27 °C. Model spreads between GFS and ECMWF remain wide on the timing of any clearer intervals or heavier rain bands that could push temperatures below 23 °C or hold them above 29 °C. PAGASA climatology shows typical September minima around 24 °C, but short-term shifts in boundary-layer moisture and wind speed can alter the outcome by several degrees before the daily low is recorded. Traders are monitoring the next model cycles and official guidance for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...With two days until September 4, forecast uncertainty around Manila’s nighttime minimum is driving closely matched market odds between extremes and mid-range values. The southwest monsoon continues delivering variable cloud cover, humidity, and scattered showers across Luzon, limiting radiative cooling and favoring lows near 24–27 °C. Model spreads between GFS and ECMWF remain wide on the timing of any clearer intervals or heavier rain bands that could push temperatures below 23 °C or hold them above 29 °C. PAGASA climatology shows typical September minima around 24 °C, but short-term shifts in boundary-layer moisture and wind speed can alter the outcome by several degrees before the daily low is recorded. Traders are monitoring the next model cycles and official guidance for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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