**Current forecasts from the National Weather Service and other meteorological sources project a low near 77°F for Dallas on September 4, 2026, under mostly clear skies with light southerly flow.** This aligns with late-summer climatology for the region, where average overnight lows hover around 74°F amid persistent warmth and high humidity that limits radiational cooling. Southerly winds and dew points in the low-to-mid 70s are expected to hold temperatures well above typical early-September minima, reducing the chance of significant overnight drops. The closely matched market-implied probabilities for the extreme tails (69°F or below and 88°F or higher) reflect trader recognition of forecast uncertainty this far ahead, even as short-range guidance converges on the mid-to-upper 70s. Key differentiating factors include potential variations in cloud cover, wind speed, or any late-arriving moisture that could either enhance or suppress cooling; historical analogs show lows on this date ranging from the mid-50s in rare cool outbreaks to the upper 70s in warm, humid regimes. Upcoming National Weather Service updates and model runs over the next 48 hours will likely refine these estimates and influence positioning around the 76–79°F bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Dallas on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Dallas on September 4?
69°F or below 69%
88°F or higher 69%
78-79°F 50%
80-81°F 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
69°F or below
69%
70-71°F
19%
72-73°F
49%
74-75°F
49%
76-77°F
49%
78-79°F
50%
80-81°F
50%
82-83°F
8%
84-85°F
8%
86-87°F
8%
88°F or higher
69%
69°F or below 69%
88°F or higher 69%
78-79°F 50%
80-81°F 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
69°F or below
$0 Vol.
69%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
19%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
49%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
49%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
49%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
50%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
50%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
8%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
8%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
8%
88°F or higher
$0 Vol.
69%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from the National Weather Service and other meteorological sources project a low near 77°F for Dallas on September 4, 2026, under mostly clear skies with light southerly flow.** This aligns with late-summer climatology for the region, where average overnight lows hover around 74°F amid persistent warmth and high humidity that limits radiational cooling. Southerly winds and dew points in the low-to-mid 70s are expected to hold temperatures well above typical early-September minima, reducing the chance of significant overnight drops.
The closely matched market-implied probabilities for the extreme tails (69°F or below and 88°F or higher) reflect trader recognition of forecast uncertainty this far ahead, even as short-range guidance converges on the mid-to-upper 70s. Key differentiating factors include potential variations in cloud cover, wind speed, or any late-arriving moisture that could either enhance or suppress cooling; historical analogs show lows on this date ranging from the mid-50s in rare cool outbreaks to the upper 70s in warm, humid regimes. Upcoming National Weather Service updates and model runs over the next 48 hours will likely refine these estimates and influence positioning around the 76–79°F bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from the National Weather Service and other meteorological sources project a low near 77°F for Dallas on September 4, 2026, under mostly clear skies with light southerly flow.** This aligns with late-summer climatology for the region, where average overnight lows hover around 74°F amid persistent warmth and high humidity that limits radiational cooling. Southerly winds and dew points in the low-to-mid 70s are expected to hold temperatures well above typical early-September minima, reducing the chance of significant overnight drops.
The closely matched market-implied probabilities for the extreme tails (69°F or below and 88°F or higher) reflect trader recognition of forecast uncertainty this far ahead, even as short-range guidance converges on the mid-to-upper 70s. Key differentiating factors include potential variations in cloud cover, wind speed, or any late-arriving moisture that could either enhance or suppress cooling; historical analogs show lows on this date ranging from the mid-50s in rare cool outbreaks to the upper 70s in warm, humid regimes. Upcoming National Weather Service updates and model runs over the next 48 hours will likely refine these estimates and influence positioning around the 76–79°F bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecasts from the National Weather Service and other meteorological sources project a low near 77°F for Dallas on September 4, 2026, under mostly clear skies with light southerly flow.** This aligns with late-summer climatology for the region, where average overnight lows hover around 74°F amid persistent warmth and high humidity that limits radiational cooling. Southerly winds and dew points in the low-to-mid 70s are expected to hold temperatures well above typical early-September minima, reducing the chance of significant overnight drops. The closely matched market-implied probabilities for the extreme tails (69°F or below and 88°F or higher) reflect trader recognition of forecast uncertainty this far ahead, even as short-range guidance converges on the mid-to-upper 70s. Key differentiating factors include potential variations in cloud cover, wind speed, or any late-arriving moisture that could either enhance or suppress cooling; historical analogs show lows on this date ranging from the mid-50s in rare cool outbreaks to the upper 70s in warm, humid regimes. Upcoming National Weather Service updates and model runs over the next 48 hours will likely refine these estimates and influence positioning around the 76–79°F bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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