**Forecast consensus from NWS and major models points to an overnight low in the upper 70s for Dallas on September 2, 2026, with most guidance clustering around 75–77°F.** This supports the near-even market split between the 74–75°F and 76–77°F bins at 50% each, as traders weigh the precise minimum under late-summer conditions. Key drivers include continued southerly flow maintaining dew points near 70–72°F, which limits radiational cooling despite mostly clear skies. Daytime highs near 94–99°F leave a warm boundary layer, while light winds (5–10 mph) and minimal cloud cover allow modest overnight drops but not enough for sub-74°F readings. Historical climatology shows average lows near 74–75°F for early September, but current moisture and lack of frontal passage keep values elevated. Model runs exhibit tight agreement with little spread, though any increase in low-level moisture or slight wind shift could push the minimum toward 78°F, explaining the secondary pricing on 78–79°F. No major forecast shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours, leaving resolution dependent on the final evening observations and any last-minute model adjustments before midnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Dallas on September 2?
Lowest temperature in Dallas on September 2?
74-75°F 100%
76-77°F 100%
82-83°F 92%
80-81°F 88%
NEW
NEW
Sep 2, 2026
69°F or below
5%
70-71°F
15%
72-73°F
16%
74-75°F
100%
76-77°F
100%
78-79°F
79%
80-81°F
88%
82-83°F
92%
84-85°F
19%
86-87°F
18%
88°F or higher
2%
74-75°F 100%
76-77°F 100%
82-83°F 92%
80-81°F 88%
NEW
NEW
Sep 2, 2026
69°F or below
$5 Vol.
5%
70-71°F
$5 Vol.
15%
72-73°F
$15 Vol.
16%
74-75°F
$15 Vol.
100%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
100%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
79%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
88%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
92%
84-85°F
$15 Vol.
19%
86-87°F
$15 Vol.
18%
88°F or higher
$5 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from NWS and major models points to an overnight low in the upper 70s for Dallas on September 2, 2026, with most guidance clustering around 75–77°F.** This supports the near-even market split between the 74–75°F and 76–77°F bins at 50% each, as traders weigh the precise minimum under late-summer conditions.
Key drivers include continued southerly flow maintaining dew points near 70–72°F, which limits radiational cooling despite mostly clear skies. Daytime highs near 94–99°F leave a warm boundary layer, while light winds (5–10 mph) and minimal cloud cover allow modest overnight drops but not enough for sub-74°F readings. Historical climatology shows average lows near 74–75°F for early September, but current moisture and lack of frontal passage keep values elevated.
Model runs exhibit tight agreement with little spread, though any increase in low-level moisture or slight wind shift could push the minimum toward 78°F, explaining the secondary pricing on 78–79°F. No major forecast shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours, leaving resolution dependent on the final evening observations and any last-minute model adjustments before midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$75End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from NWS and major models points to an overnight low in the upper 70s for Dallas on September 2, 2026, with most guidance clustering around 75–77°F.** This supports the near-even market split between the 74–75°F and 76–77°F bins at 50% each, as traders weigh the precise minimum under late-summer conditions.
Key drivers include continued southerly flow maintaining dew points near 70–72°F, which limits radiational cooling despite mostly clear skies. Daytime highs near 94–99°F leave a warm boundary layer, while light winds (5–10 mph) and minimal cloud cover allow modest overnight drops but not enough for sub-74°F readings. Historical climatology shows average lows near 74–75°F for early September, but current moisture and lack of frontal passage keep values elevated.
Model runs exhibit tight agreement with little spread, though any increase in low-level moisture or slight wind shift could push the minimum toward 78°F, explaining the secondary pricing on 78–79°F. No major forecast shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours, leaving resolution dependent on the final evening observations and any last-minute model adjustments before midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$75End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus from NWS and major models points to an overnight low in the upper 70s for Dallas on September 2, 2026, with most guidance clustering around 75–77°F.** This supports the near-even market split between the 74–75°F and 76–77°F bins at 50% each, as traders weigh the precise minimum under late-summer conditions. Key drivers include continued southerly flow maintaining dew points near 70–72°F, which limits radiational cooling despite mostly clear skies. Daytime highs near 94–99°F leave a warm boundary layer, while light winds (5–10 mph) and minimal cloud cover allow modest overnight drops but not enough for sub-74°F readings. Historical climatology shows average lows near 74–75°F for early September, but current moisture and lack of frontal passage keep values elevated. Model runs exhibit tight agreement with little spread, though any increase in low-level moisture or slight wind shift could push the minimum toward 78°F, explaining the secondary pricing on 78–79°F. No major forecast shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours, leaving resolution dependent on the final evening observations and any last-minute model adjustments before midnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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