The developing strong El Niño event, with central and eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures rising sharply and models projecting peak intensity by late 2026, forms the main driver behind trader sentiment favoring below-normal September rainfall in Hong Kong. Hong Kong Observatory seasonal and monthly outlooks explicitly assign higher probability to normal-to-below-normal totals, consistent with El Niño suppression of the southwest monsoon and reduced tropical cyclone influence near the South China Sea. Historical September averages of 321 mm provide context, while early-month troughs and potential systems introduce upside risk that explains the spread across bins below 350 mm. Key variables include anticyclone strengthening in the latter half of the month, exact typhoon tracks, and any model revisions ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPrecipitation in Hong Kong in September?
Precipitation in Hong Kong in September?
<275mm 33%
275-300mm 16%
300-325mm 12%
450-500mm 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<275mm
33%
275-300mm
16%
300-325mm
12%
325-350mm
9%
350-375mm
8%
375-400mm
6%
400-450mm
7%
450-500mm
12%
500-550mm
8%
550mm+
7%
<275mm 33%
275-300mm 16%
300-325mm 12%
450-500mm 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<275mm
$805 Vol.
33%
275-300mm
$128 Vol.
16%
300-325mm
$128 Vol.
12%
325-350mm
$128 Vol.
9%
350-375mm
$125 Vol.
8%
375-400mm
$125 Vol.
6%
400-450mm
$150 Vol.
7%
450-500mm
$125 Vol.
12%
500-550mm
$128 Vol.
8%
550mm+
$150 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The developing strong El Niño event, with central and eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures rising sharply and models projecting peak intensity by late 2026, forms the main driver behind trader sentiment favoring below-normal September rainfall in Hong Kong. Hong Kong Observatory seasonal and monthly outlooks explicitly assign higher probability to normal-to-below-normal totals, consistent with El Niño suppression of the southwest monsoon and reduced tropical cyclone influence near the South China Sea. Historical September averages of 321 mm provide context, while early-month troughs and potential systems introduce upside risk that explains the spread across bins below 350 mm. Key variables include anticyclone strengthening in the latter half of the month, exact typhoon tracks, and any model revisions ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ET
Volume
$1,990End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The developing strong El Niño event, with central and eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures rising sharply and models projecting peak intensity by late 2026, forms the main driver behind trader sentiment favoring below-normal September rainfall in Hong Kong. Hong Kong Observatory seasonal and monthly outlooks explicitly assign higher probability to normal-to-below-normal totals, consistent with El Niño suppression of the southwest monsoon and reduced tropical cyclone influence near the South China Sea. Historical September averages of 321 mm provide context, while early-month troughs and potential systems introduce upside risk that explains the spread across bins below 350 mm. Key variables include anticyclone strengthening in the latter half of the month, exact typhoon tracks, and any model revisions ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,990End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The developing strong El Niño event, with central and eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures rising sharply and models projecting peak intensity by late 2026, forms the main driver behind trader sentiment favoring below-normal September rainfall in Hong Kong. Hong Kong Observatory seasonal and monthly outlooks explicitly assign higher probability to normal-to-below-normal totals, consistent with El Niño suppression of the southwest monsoon and reduced tropical cyclone influence near the South China Sea. Historical September averages of 321 mm provide context, while early-month troughs and potential systems introduce upside risk that explains the spread across bins below 350 mm. Key variables include anticyclone strengthening in the latter half of the month, exact typhoon tracks, and any model revisions ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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