Trader consensus places a modest edge on the 7°C-or-below outcome at 55% implied probability, driven by short-range ensemble variability in overnight radiative cooling for Buenos Aires on September 2. Recent southerly wind shifts and residual cold-air advection after late-August frontal passages have introduced model spread in low-level temperatures and cloud cover, with some guidance showing minima dipping toward single digits while others hold near the 11°C seasonal baseline. This uncertainty is amplified by the transitional spring pattern, where small changes in wind direction or boundary-layer moisture can shift the minimum by several degrees. Fresh model runs over the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalyst for any further market movement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Buenos Aires on September 2?
Lowest temperature in Buenos Aires on September 2?
13°C 88%
10°C 86%
11°C 84%
17°C or higher 83%
NEW
NEW
Sep 2, 2026
7°C or below
15%
8°C
44%
9°C
45%
10°C
86%
11°C
84%
12°C
80%
13°C
88%
14°C
82%
15°C
82%
16°C
81%
17°C or higher
83%
13°C 88%
10°C 86%
11°C 84%
17°C or higher 83%
NEW
NEW
Sep 2, 2026
7°C or below
$0 Vol.
15%
8°C
$0 Vol.
44%
9°C
$0 Vol.
45%
10°C
$0 Vol.
86%
11°C
$0 Vol.
84%
12°C
$107 Vol.
80%
13°C
$5 Vol.
88%
14°C
$5 Vol.
82%
15°C
$5 Vol.
82%
16°C
$5 Vol.
81%
17°C or higher
$5 Vol.
83%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus places a modest edge on the 7°C-or-below outcome at 55% implied probability, driven by short-range ensemble variability in overnight radiative cooling for Buenos Aires on September 2. Recent southerly wind shifts and residual cold-air advection after late-August frontal passages have introduced model spread in low-level temperatures and cloud cover, with some guidance showing minima dipping toward single digits while others hold near the 11°C seasonal baseline. This uncertainty is amplified by the transitional spring pattern, where small changes in wind direction or boundary-layer moisture can shift the minimum by several degrees. Fresh model runs over the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalyst for any further market movement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$132End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saezResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus places a modest edge on the 7°C-or-below outcome at 55% implied probability, driven by short-range ensemble variability in overnight radiative cooling for Buenos Aires on September 2. Recent southerly wind shifts and residual cold-air advection after late-August frontal passages have introduced model spread in low-level temperatures and cloud cover, with some guidance showing minima dipping toward single digits while others hold near the 11°C seasonal baseline. This uncertainty is amplified by the transitional spring pattern, where small changes in wind direction or boundary-layer moisture can shift the minimum by several degrees. Fresh model runs over the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalyst for any further market movement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$132End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saezResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus places a modest edge on the 7°C-or-below outcome at 55% implied probability, driven by short-range ensemble variability in overnight radiative cooling for Buenos Aires on September 2. Recent southerly wind shifts and residual cold-air advection after late-August frontal passages have introduced model spread in low-level temperatures and cloud cover, with some guidance showing minima dipping toward single digits while others hold near the 11°C seasonal baseline. This uncertainty is amplified by the transitional spring pattern, where small changes in wind direction or boundary-layer moisture can shift the minimum by several degrees. Fresh model runs over the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalyst for any further market movement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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