Recent short-range model consensus and National Weather Service guidance point to a highest temperature near San Francisco’s early-September climatological average of ~70°F on September 2, driven by persistent onshore flow and a strong marine layer that limits daytime heating. Trader-implied odds cluster around 70-73°F because ensembles show only modest warming potential if afternoon clearing occurs, while probabilities drop sharply above 76°F given the cool Pacific sea-surface temperatures and troughing favored in the latest Climate Prediction Center 6-10 day outlook. Key variables include the timing of any stratus burn-off, southwest wind strength, and exact boundary-layer moisture; updated NWS and high-resolution model runs over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in San Francisco on September 2?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on September 2?
70-71°F 24%
72-73°F 22%
64-65°F 16%
68-69°F 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 2, 2026
63°F or below
5%
64-65°F
16%
66-67°F
9%
68-69°F
14%
70-71°F
24%
72-73°F
22%
74-75°F
10%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
20%
80-81°F
<1%
82°F or higher
<1%
70-71°F 24%
72-73°F 22%
64-65°F 16%
68-69°F 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 2, 2026
63°F or below
$308 Vol.
5%
64-65°F
$25 Vol.
16%
66-67°F
$82 Vol.
9%
68-69°F
$83 Vol.
14%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
24%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
22%
74-75°F
$16 Vol.
10%
76-77°F
$66 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$182 Vol.
20%
80-81°F
$5 Vol.
<1%
82°F or higher
$5 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range model consensus and National Weather Service guidance point to a highest temperature near San Francisco’s early-September climatological average of ~70°F on September 2, driven by persistent onshore flow and a strong marine layer that limits daytime heating. Trader-implied odds cluster around 70-73°F because ensembles show only modest warming potential if afternoon clearing occurs, while probabilities drop sharply above 76°F given the cool Pacific sea-surface temperatures and troughing favored in the latest Climate Prediction Center 6-10 day outlook. Key variables include the timing of any stratus burn-off, southwest wind strength, and exact boundary-layer moisture; updated NWS and high-resolution model runs over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 7:56 AM ET
Volume
$773End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range model consensus and National Weather Service guidance point to a highest temperature near San Francisco’s early-September climatological average of ~70°F on September 2, driven by persistent onshore flow and a strong marine layer that limits daytime heating. Trader-implied odds cluster around 70-73°F because ensembles show only modest warming potential if afternoon clearing occurs, while probabilities drop sharply above 76°F given the cool Pacific sea-surface temperatures and troughing favored in the latest Climate Prediction Center 6-10 day outlook. Key variables include the timing of any stratus burn-off, southwest wind strength, and exact boundary-layer moisture; updated NWS and high-resolution model runs over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$773End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range model consensus and National Weather Service guidance point to a highest temperature near San Francisco’s early-September climatological average of ~70°F on September 2, driven by persistent onshore flow and a strong marine layer that limits daytime heating. Trader-implied odds cluster around 70-73°F because ensembles show only modest warming potential if afternoon clearing occurs, while probabilities drop sharply above 76°F given the cool Pacific sea-surface temperatures and troughing favored in the latest Climate Prediction Center 6-10 day outlook. Key variables include the timing of any stratus burn-off, southwest wind strength, and exact boundary-layer moisture; updated NWS and high-resolution model runs over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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