Trader sentiment for September 2026 US tornado counts centers on climatological norms of roughly 66 tornadoes (1991–2020 average), aligning closely with the tightly matched 50–74 and 25–49 bins. Primary uncertainty stems from the month’s transitional regime, where waning convective available potential energy and vertical wind shear reduce baseline activity compared with spring peaks, offset by potential boosts from landfalling tropical cyclones that can generate dozens of tornadoes through enhanced low-level shear and moisture. El Niño conditions strengthening into September may favor certain steering patterns or suppressed Gulf activity, while official Storm Prediction Center outlooks and NOAA seasonal guidance highlight the low-probability but high-impact role of multiple tropical systems versus a quiet pattern dominated by stable ridging. Historical extremes (under 10 to nearly 300) underscore the sensitivity to these variables.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS Tornadoes in September 2026
US Tornadoes in September 2026
25 - 49 53%
50 - 74 53%
75 - 124 47%
125 or more 44%
NEW
NEW
Oct 14, 2026
Under 25
42%
25 - 49
53%
50 - 74
53%
75 - 124
47%
125 or more
44%
25 - 49 53%
50 - 74 53%
75 - 124 47%
125 or more 44%
NEW
NEW
Oct 14, 2026
Under 25
$0 Vol.
42%
25 - 49
$0 Vol.
53%
50 - 74
$0 Vol.
53%
75 - 124
$0 Vol.
47%
125 or more
$0 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader sentiment for September 2026 US tornado counts centers on climatological norms of roughly 66 tornadoes (1991–2020 average), aligning closely with the tightly matched 50–74 and 25–49 bins. Primary uncertainty stems from the month’s transitional regime, where waning convective available potential energy and vertical wind shear reduce baseline activity compared with spring peaks, offset by potential boosts from landfalling tropical cyclones that can generate dozens of tornadoes through enhanced low-level shear and moisture. El Niño conditions strengthening into September may favor certain steering patterns or suppressed Gulf activity, while official Storm Prediction Center outlooks and NOAA seasonal guidance highlight the low-probability but high-impact role of multiple tropical systems versus a quiet pattern dominated by stable ridging. Historical extremes (under 10 to nearly 300) underscore the sensitivity to these variables.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader sentiment for September 2026 US tornado counts centers on climatological norms of roughly 66 tornadoes (1991–2020 average), aligning closely with the tightly matched 50–74 and 25–49 bins. Primary uncertainty stems from the month’s transitional regime, where waning convective available potential energy and vertical wind shear reduce baseline activity compared with spring peaks, offset by potential boosts from landfalling tropical cyclones that can generate dozens of tornadoes through enhanced low-level shear and moisture. El Niño conditions strengthening into September may favor certain steering patterns or suppressed Gulf activity, while official Storm Prediction Center outlooks and NOAA seasonal guidance highlight the low-probability but high-impact role of multiple tropical systems versus a quiet pattern dominated by stable ridging. Historical extremes (under 10 to nearly 300) underscore the sensitivity to these variables.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for September 2026 US tornado counts centers on climatological norms of roughly 66 tornadoes (1991–2020 average), aligning closely with the tightly matched 50–74 and 25–49 bins. Primary uncertainty stems from the month’s transitional regime, where waning convective available potential energy and vertical wind shear reduce baseline activity compared with spring peaks, offset by potential boosts from landfalling tropical cyclones that can generate dozens of tornadoes through enhanced low-level shear and moisture. El Niño conditions strengthening into September may favor certain steering patterns or suppressed Gulf activity, while official Storm Prediction Center outlooks and NOAA seasonal guidance highlight the low-probability but high-impact role of multiple tropical systems versus a quiet pattern dominated by stable ridging. Historical extremes (under 10 to nearly 300) underscore the sensitivity to these variables.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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