Recent forecasts from models like GFS indicate clear skies and light westerly winds over Milan on August 31, supporting strong daytime insolation and surface heating that could push the maximum to 30–32°C. With high pressure dominating and minimal cloud cover or moisture advection, the peak depends on subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of any weak fronts. Historical late-August climatology averages around 27–28°C, so current guidance reflects above-normal warmth. Trader consensus clusters tightly on 30–31°C due to model spread in these fine-scale variables, with lower probabilities assigned to 32°C or cooler outcomes pending the final 48-hour updates from agencies like the Italian Meteorological Service.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on August 31?
Highest temperature in Milan on August 31?
31°C 37%
30°C 36%
32°C 11%
29°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
4%
27°C
4%
28°C
9%
29°C
11%
30°C
36%
31°C
37%
32°C
12%
33°C
6%
34°C or higher
4%
31°C 37%
30°C 36%
32°C 11%
29°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
24°C or below
$10 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$0 Vol.
4%
27°C
$0 Vol.
4%
28°C
$0 Vol.
9%
29°C
$9 Vol.
11%
30°C
$14 Vol.
36%
31°C
$77 Vol.
37%
32°C
$18 Vol.
12%
33°C
$0 Vol.
6%
34°C or higher
$0 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models like GFS indicate clear skies and light westerly winds over Milan on August 31, supporting strong daytime insolation and surface heating that could push the maximum to 30–32°C. With high pressure dominating and minimal cloud cover or moisture advection, the peak depends on subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of any weak fronts. Historical late-August climatology averages around 27–28°C, so current guidance reflects above-normal warmth. Trader consensus clusters tightly on 30–31°C due to model spread in these fine-scale variables, with lower probabilities assigned to 32°C or cooler outcomes pending the final 48-hour updates from agencies like the Italian Meteorological Service.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$128End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models like GFS indicate clear skies and light westerly winds over Milan on August 31, supporting strong daytime insolation and surface heating that could push the maximum to 30–32°C. With high pressure dominating and minimal cloud cover or moisture advection, the peak depends on subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of any weak fronts. Historical late-August climatology averages around 27–28°C, so current guidance reflects above-normal warmth. Trader consensus clusters tightly on 30–31°C due to model spread in these fine-scale variables, with lower probabilities assigned to 32°C or cooler outcomes pending the final 48-hour updates from agencies like the Italian Meteorological Service.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$128End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from models like GFS indicate clear skies and light westerly winds over Milan on August 31, supporting strong daytime insolation and surface heating that could push the maximum to 30–32°C. With high pressure dominating and minimal cloud cover or moisture advection, the peak depends on subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of any weak fronts. Historical late-August climatology averages around 27–28°C, so current guidance reflects above-normal warmth. Trader consensus clusters tightly on 30–31°C due to model spread in these fine-scale variables, with lower probabilities assigned to 32°C or cooler outcomes pending the final 48-hour updates from agencies like the Italian Meteorological Service.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions