Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for New York City indicates a high temperature on September 4 likely peaking in the mid-80s under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with northwest flow. This aligns with the market's tight clustering around 84–87°F outcomes, reflecting consensus that post-frontal clearing and moderate mixing will limit extreme warmth despite seasonal averages near 80°F. Key differentiating factors include variable cloud cover and any residual moisture that could suppress or enhance daytime heating by a degree or two, alongside typical diurnal ranges and urban heat island effects. Updated model runs expected within 24 hours may refine these probabilities as resolution nears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on September 4?
Highest temperature in NYC on September 4?
84-85°F 37%
86-87°F 34%
82-83°F 31%
78-79°F 20%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
73°F or below
1%
74-75°F
3%
76-77°F
15%
78-79°F
20%
80-81°F
17%
82-83°F
31%
84-85°F
37%
86-87°F
34%
88-89°F
15%
90-91°F
17%
92°F or higher
10%
84-85°F 37%
86-87°F 34%
82-83°F 31%
78-79°F 20%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
73°F or below
$0 Vol.
1%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
3%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
15%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
20%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
17%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
31%
84-85°F
$71 Vol.
37%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
34%
88-89°F
$0 Vol.
15%
90-91°F
$0 Vol.
17%
92°F or higher
$0 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for New York City indicates a high temperature on September 4 likely peaking in the mid-80s under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with northwest flow. This aligns with the market's tight clustering around 84–87°F outcomes, reflecting consensus that post-frontal clearing and moderate mixing will limit extreme warmth despite seasonal averages near 80°F. Key differentiating factors include variable cloud cover and any residual moisture that could suppress or enhance daytime heating by a degree or two, alongside typical diurnal ranges and urban heat island effects. Updated model runs expected within 24 hours may refine these probabilities as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 3:55 AM ET
Volume
$71End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 3:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for New York City indicates a high temperature on September 4 likely peaking in the mid-80s under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with northwest flow. This aligns with the market's tight clustering around 84–87°F outcomes, reflecting consensus that post-frontal clearing and moderate mixing will limit extreme warmth despite seasonal averages near 80°F. Key differentiating factors include variable cloud cover and any residual moisture that could suppress or enhance daytime heating by a degree or two, alongside typical diurnal ranges and urban heat island effects. Updated model runs expected within 24 hours may refine these probabilities as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$71End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 3:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for New York City indicates a high temperature on September 4 likely peaking in the mid-80s under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with northwest flow. This aligns with the market's tight clustering around 84–87°F outcomes, reflecting consensus that post-frontal clearing and moderate mixing will limit extreme warmth despite seasonal averages near 80°F. Key differentiating factors include variable cloud cover and any residual moisture that could suppress or enhance daytime heating by a degree or two, alongside typical diurnal ranges and urban heat island effects. Updated model runs expected within 24 hours may refine these probabilities as resolution nears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions