**Current short-range forecasts from multiple models converge on a daily maximum of 28–30 °C for Ankara on September 4, 2026, under clear to partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly flow, and typical early-September insolation at the city’s ~900 m elevation.** This produces the tight 40.5 % / 39.0 % split between the 29 °C and 28 °C contracts, as ensemble members differ by only 1–2 °C in peak afternoon heating due to minor variations in boundary-layer mixing and cloud timing. Historical climatology places early-September maxima near 27–28 °C, so the current warm bias reflects persistent high pressure and dry air rather than an anomalous event. With resolution still two days away, traders are weighting the latest model runs and any updates from the Turkish State Meteorological Service that could nudge the exact peak across the 28/29 °C threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Ankara on September 4?
Highest temperature in Ankara on September 4?
29°C 40%
28°C 40%
30°C 14%
27°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
24°C or below
1%
25°C
2%
26°C
4%
27°C
10%
28°C
40%
29°C
40%
30°C
14%
31°C
3%
32°C
1%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
29°C 40%
28°C 40%
30°C 14%
27°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
24°C or below
$80 Vol.
1%
25°C
$60 Vol.
2%
26°C
$179 Vol.
4%
27°C
$117 Vol.
10%
28°C
$233 Vol.
40%
29°C
$257 Vol.
40%
30°C
$114 Vol.
14%
31°C
$63 Vol.
3%
32°C
$0 Vol.
1%
33°C
$271 Vol.
<1%
34°C or higher
$277 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current short-range forecasts from multiple models converge on a daily maximum of 28–30 °C for Ankara on September 4, 2026, under clear to partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly flow, and typical early-September insolation at the city’s ~900 m elevation.** This produces the tight 40.5 % / 39.0 % split between the 29 °C and 28 °C contracts, as ensemble members differ by only 1–2 °C in peak afternoon heating due to minor variations in boundary-layer mixing and cloud timing. Historical climatology places early-September maxima near 27–28 °C, so the current warm bias reflects persistent high pressure and dry air rather than an anomalous event. With resolution still two days away, traders are weighting the latest model runs and any updates from the Turkish State Meteorological Service that could nudge the exact peak across the 28/29 °C threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,652End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current short-range forecasts from multiple models converge on a daily maximum of 28–30 °C for Ankara on September 4, 2026, under clear to partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly flow, and typical early-September insolation at the city’s ~900 m elevation.** This produces the tight 40.5 % / 39.0 % split between the 29 °C and 28 °C contracts, as ensemble members differ by only 1–2 °C in peak afternoon heating due to minor variations in boundary-layer mixing and cloud timing. Historical climatology places early-September maxima near 27–28 °C, so the current warm bias reflects persistent high pressure and dry air rather than an anomalous event. With resolution still two days away, traders are weighting the latest model runs and any updates from the Turkish State Meteorological Service that could nudge the exact peak across the 28/29 °C threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,652End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current short-range forecasts from multiple models converge on a daily maximum of 28–30 °C for Ankara on September 4, 2026, under clear to partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly flow, and typical early-September insolation at the city’s ~900 m elevation.** This produces the tight 40.5 % / 39.0 % split between the 29 °C and 28 °C contracts, as ensemble members differ by only 1–2 °C in peak afternoon heating due to minor variations in boundary-layer mixing and cloud timing. Historical climatology places early-September maxima near 27–28 °C, so the current warm bias reflects persistent high pressure and dry air rather than an anomalous event. With resolution still two days away, traders are weighting the latest model runs and any updates from the Turkish State Meteorological Service that could nudge the exact peak across the 28/29 °C threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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