**Trader sentiment centers on the moderating influence of Tropical Cyclone Saudel and the northeast monsoon over the South China Sea, which are expected to bring persistent cloud cover, squally showers, and stronger winds to Hong Kong on September 4.** Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance forecasts a 25–29°C range for the day, with mainly cloudy skies and scattered showers, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around 28–29°C (combined ~60% implied probability). These conditions suppress daytime heating compared to typical early-September climatology (often 30–32°C under clearer skies), as reduced insolation and evaporative cooling from rain limit peak temperatures. Model and observational updates show Saudel lingering nearby or tracking toward the eastern Guangdong coast/Pearl River estuary around Friday, introducing uncertainty in exact rain timing and intensity that could shift the high by 1–2°C. Clearer breaks might allow brief warming toward 30°C, while heavier or more prolonged showers favor 28°C or below; the close 28–29°C split reflects this forecast sensitivity rather than any single dominant signal. Upcoming HKO updates and revised model runs over the next 48 hours will likely drive the next market moves.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on September 4?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 4?
29°C 31%
28°C 30%
30°C 15%
27°C 11%
NEW
$12,808 Vol.
NEW
$12,808 Vol.
Sep 4, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
7%
27°C
11%
28°C
30%
29°C
31%
30°C
15%
31°C
5%
32°C
3%
33°C or higher
1%
29°C 31%
28°C 30%
30°C 15%
27°C 11%
NEW
$12,808 Vol.
NEW
$12,808 Vol.
Sep 4, 2026
23°C or below
$10,597 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$143 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$270 Vol.
7%
27°C
$541 Vol.
11%
28°C
$395 Vol.
30%
29°C
$217 Vol.
31%
30°C
$222 Vol.
15%
31°C
$68 Vol.
5%
32°C
$144 Vol.
3%
33°C or higher
$201 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader sentiment centers on the moderating influence of Tropical Cyclone Saudel and the northeast monsoon over the South China Sea, which are expected to bring persistent cloud cover, squally showers, and stronger winds to Hong Kong on September 4.** Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance forecasts a 25–29°C range for the day, with mainly cloudy skies and scattered showers, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around 28–29°C (combined ~60% implied probability).
These conditions suppress daytime heating compared to typical early-September climatology (often 30–32°C under clearer skies), as reduced insolation and evaporative cooling from rain limit peak temperatures. Model and observational updates show Saudel lingering nearby or tracking toward the eastern Guangdong coast/Pearl River estuary around Friday, introducing uncertainty in exact rain timing and intensity that could shift the high by 1–2°C.
Clearer breaks might allow brief warming toward 30°C, while heavier or more prolonged showers favor 28°C or below; the close 28–29°C split reflects this forecast sensitivity rather than any single dominant signal. Upcoming HKO updates and revised model runs over the next 48 hours will likely drive the next market moves.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$12,808End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader sentiment centers on the moderating influence of Tropical Cyclone Saudel and the northeast monsoon over the South China Sea, which are expected to bring persistent cloud cover, squally showers, and stronger winds to Hong Kong on September 4.** Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance forecasts a 25–29°C range for the day, with mainly cloudy skies and scattered showers, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around 28–29°C (combined ~60% implied probability).
These conditions suppress daytime heating compared to typical early-September climatology (often 30–32°C under clearer skies), as reduced insolation and evaporative cooling from rain limit peak temperatures. Model and observational updates show Saudel lingering nearby or tracking toward the eastern Guangdong coast/Pearl River estuary around Friday, introducing uncertainty in exact rain timing and intensity that could shift the high by 1–2°C.
Clearer breaks might allow brief warming toward 30°C, while heavier or more prolonged showers favor 28°C or below; the close 28–29°C split reflects this forecast sensitivity rather than any single dominant signal. Upcoming HKO updates and revised model runs over the next 48 hours will likely drive the next market moves.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$12,808End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment centers on the moderating influence of Tropical Cyclone Saudel and the northeast monsoon over the South China Sea, which are expected to bring persistent cloud cover, squally showers, and stronger winds to Hong Kong on September 4.** Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance forecasts a 25–29°C range for the day, with mainly cloudy skies and scattered showers, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around 28–29°C (combined ~60% implied probability). These conditions suppress daytime heating compared to typical early-September climatology (often 30–32°C under clearer skies), as reduced insolation and evaporative cooling from rain limit peak temperatures. Model and observational updates show Saudel lingering nearby or tracking toward the eastern Guangdong coast/Pearl River estuary around Friday, introducing uncertainty in exact rain timing and intensity that could shift the high by 1–2°C. Clearer breaks might allow brief warming toward 30°C, while heavier or more prolonged showers favor 28°C or below; the close 28–29°C split reflects this forecast sensitivity rather than any single dominant signal. Upcoming HKO updates and revised model runs over the next 48 hours will likely drive the next market moves.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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