Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to an overnight low of 56–57°F for San Francisco on September 5, driven by persistent onshore flow and a moderating marine layer that limits radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. This aligns with the September climatological average low of 56.1°F and recent station observations showing upper-50s readings amid below-normal 500 mb heights. The 58–59°F bin leads market-implied odds at 47% because slight forecast warming or measurement timing differences could push the minimum higher, while the 56–57°F outcome at 34% reflects the tight consensus in official runs. Traders are watching the next NWS update and any shift in wind or cloud cover that might alter the minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in San Francisco on September 5?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on September 5?
58-59°F 59%
56-57°F 49%
47°F or below 46%
50-51°F 46%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
47°F or below
46%
48-49°F
8%
50-51°F
46%
52-53°F
43%
54-55°F
23%
56-57°F
34%
58-59°F
47%
60-61°F
46%
62-63°F
8%
64-65°F
8%
66°F or higher
46%
58-59°F 59%
56-57°F 49%
47°F or below 46%
50-51°F 46%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
47°F or below
$6 Vol.
46%
48-49°F
$26 Vol.
8%
50-51°F
$6 Vol.
46%
52-53°F
$0 Vol.
43%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
23%
56-57°F
$76 Vol.
34%
58-59°F
$80 Vol.
47%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
46%
62-63°F
$59 Vol.
8%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
8%
66°F or higher
$0 Vol.
46%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to an overnight low of 56–57°F for San Francisco on September 5, driven by persistent onshore flow and a moderating marine layer that limits radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. This aligns with the September climatological average low of 56.1°F and recent station observations showing upper-50s readings amid below-normal 500 mb heights. The 58–59°F bin leads market-implied odds at 47% because slight forecast warming or measurement timing differences could push the minimum higher, while the 56–57°F outcome at 34% reflects the tight consensus in official runs. Traders are watching the next NWS update and any shift in wind or cloud cover that might alter the minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volume
$253End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to an overnight low of 56–57°F for San Francisco on September 5, driven by persistent onshore flow and a moderating marine layer that limits radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. This aligns with the September climatological average low of 56.1°F and recent station observations showing upper-50s readings amid below-normal 500 mb heights. The 58–59°F bin leads market-implied odds at 47% because slight forecast warming or measurement timing differences could push the minimum higher, while the 56–57°F outcome at 34% reflects the tight consensus in official runs. Traders are watching the next NWS update and any shift in wind or cloud cover that might alter the minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$253End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to an overnight low of 56–57°F for San Francisco on September 5, driven by persistent onshore flow and a moderating marine layer that limits radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. This aligns with the September climatological average low of 56.1°F and recent station observations showing upper-50s readings amid below-normal 500 mb heights. The 58–59°F bin leads market-implied odds at 47% because slight forecast warming or measurement timing differences could push the minimum higher, while the 56–57°F outcome at 34% reflects the tight consensus in official runs. Traders are watching the next NWS update and any shift in wind or cloud cover that might alter the minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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