Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble guidance indicate clearing skies and onshore flow will support a high near 66–68°F in San Francisco on September 5 after an early-week frontal passage brought cooler, showery conditions. The 70–71°F bin leads at 44% implied probability because traders weigh the seasonal tendency for September warming once the marine layer retreats, combined with light west winds that can allow modest inland heat advection. Differentiation between the tightly bunched 68–69°F and 70–71°F outcomes hinges on the precise depth of any residual stratus, afternoon sea-breeze timing, and small variations in 850 hPa temperatures across short-range models. Updated NWS briefings and 12z model runs through Friday will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in San Francisco on September 5?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on September 5?
70-71°F 44%
68-69°F 35%
66-67°F 21%
64-65°F 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
59°F or below
1%
60-61°F
4%
62-63°F
5%
64-65°F
14%
66-67°F
21%
68-69°F
35%
70-71°F
44%
72-73°F
11%
74-75°F
10%
76-77°F
4%
78°F or higher
4%
70-71°F 44%
68-69°F 35%
66-67°F 21%
64-65°F 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
59°F or below
$0 Vol.
1%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
4%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
5%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
14%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
21%
68-69°F
$40 Vol.
35%
70-71°F
$229 Vol.
44%
72-73°F
$20 Vol.
11%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
10%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
4%
78°F or higher
$0 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble guidance indicate clearing skies and onshore flow will support a high near 66–68°F in San Francisco on September 5 after an early-week frontal passage brought cooler, showery conditions. The 70–71°F bin leads at 44% implied probability because traders weigh the seasonal tendency for September warming once the marine layer retreats, combined with light west winds that can allow modest inland heat advection. Differentiation between the tightly bunched 68–69°F and 70–71°F outcomes hinges on the precise depth of any residual stratus, afternoon sea-breeze timing, and small variations in 850 hPa temperatures across short-range models. Updated NWS briefings and 12z model runs through Friday will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 7:56 AM ET
Volume
$289End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble guidance indicate clearing skies and onshore flow will support a high near 66–68°F in San Francisco on September 5 after an early-week frontal passage brought cooler, showery conditions. The 70–71°F bin leads at 44% implied probability because traders weigh the seasonal tendency for September warming once the marine layer retreats, combined with light west winds that can allow modest inland heat advection. Differentiation between the tightly bunched 68–69°F and 70–71°F outcomes hinges on the precise depth of any residual stratus, afternoon sea-breeze timing, and small variations in 850 hPa temperatures across short-range models. Updated NWS briefings and 12z model runs through Friday will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$289End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble guidance indicate clearing skies and onshore flow will support a high near 66–68°F in San Francisco on September 5 after an early-week frontal passage brought cooler, showery conditions. The 70–71°F bin leads at 44% implied probability because traders weigh the seasonal tendency for September warming once the marine layer retreats, combined with light west winds that can allow modest inland heat advection. Differentiation between the tightly bunched 68–69°F and 70–71°F outcomes hinges on the precise depth of any residual stratus, afternoon sea-breeze timing, and small variations in 850 hPa temperatures across short-range models. Updated NWS briefings and 12z model runs through Friday will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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