Forecast models from agencies like Mexico's SMN and global ensembles show a September 5 minimum in Mexico City likely settling between 12–14°C, shaped by the city's 2,240 m elevation, persistent cloud cover, and light showers typical of the rainy season that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. Trader consensus around these tightly bunched outcomes reflects minor model disagreements on overnight dew points, wind speeds under 5 km/h, and the exact timing of any clearing that could allow an extra degree or two of drop. Historical September baselines near 13°C, combined with current stable pressure patterns, keep extremes below 11°C or above 15°C less probable while new hourly observations and updated runs arrive.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Mexico City on September 5?
Lowest temperature in Mexico City on September 5?
9°C 50%
7°C or below 45%
14°C 32%
12°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
7°C or below
45%
8°C
7%
9°C
50%
10°C
25%
11°C
25%
12°C
27%
13°C
27%
14°C
32%
15°C
26%
16°C
25%
17°C or higher
11%
9°C 50%
7°C or below 45%
14°C 32%
12°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
7°C or below
$20 Vol.
45%
8°C
$12 Vol.
7%
9°C
$12 Vol.
50%
10°C
$0 Vol.
25%
11°C
$0 Vol.
25%
12°C
$2 Vol.
27%
13°C
$2 Vol.
27%
14°C
$2 Vol.
32%
15°C
$0 Vol.
26%
16°C
$0 Vol.
25%
17°C or higher
$8 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies like Mexico's SMN and global ensembles show a September 5 minimum in Mexico City likely settling between 12–14°C, shaped by the city's 2,240 m elevation, persistent cloud cover, and light showers typical of the rainy season that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. Trader consensus around these tightly bunched outcomes reflects minor model disagreements on overnight dew points, wind speeds under 5 km/h, and the exact timing of any clearing that could allow an extra degree or two of drop. Historical September baselines near 13°C, combined with current stable pressure patterns, keep extremes below 11°C or above 15°C less probable while new hourly observations and updated runs arrive.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$58End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies like Mexico's SMN and global ensembles show a September 5 minimum in Mexico City likely settling between 12–14°C, shaped by the city's 2,240 m elevation, persistent cloud cover, and light showers typical of the rainy season that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. Trader consensus around these tightly bunched outcomes reflects minor model disagreements on overnight dew points, wind speeds under 5 km/h, and the exact timing of any clearing that could allow an extra degree or two of drop. Historical September baselines near 13°C, combined with current stable pressure patterns, keep extremes below 11°C or above 15°C less probable while new hourly observations and updated runs arrive.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$58End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from agencies like Mexico's SMN and global ensembles show a September 5 minimum in Mexico City likely settling between 12–14°C, shaped by the city's 2,240 m elevation, persistent cloud cover, and light showers typical of the rainy season that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. Trader consensus around these tightly bunched outcomes reflects minor model disagreements on overnight dew points, wind speeds under 5 km/h, and the exact timing of any clearing that could allow an extra degree or two of drop. Historical September baselines near 13°C, combined with current stable pressure patterns, keep extremes below 11°C or above 15°C less probable while new hourly observations and updated runs arrive.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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