**Persistent stormy conditions and high humidity are the main drivers keeping trader-implied odds centered on 22–23°C for Tokyo’s minimum temperature on September 7, 2026.** Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and multiple forecast models show a period of cloudy skies, scattered to heavy showers, and thunderstorms through the night of September 6–7, which limit nocturnal radiative cooling and support overnight lows near 21–23°C. Stronger consensus on this range explains the tight clustering at 23°C (34.5%) and 22°C (30.5%), while the notable 26.5% on 19°C or below reflects residual uncertainty in exact storm timing and any brief clearer intervals that could allow slightly more cooling. Higher outcomes (24°C+) carry low probability because models indicate continued moisture and cloud cover that should cap the minimum. Resolution will rest on the official JMA observation for the Tokyo station, with the next model updates and short-range guidance expected to sharpen the picture over the next 48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 7?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 7?
19°C or below 53%
20°C 45%
25°C 45%
23°C 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
19°C or below
53%
20°C
45%
21°C
21%
22°C
31%
23°C
38%
24°C
7%
25°C
45%
26°C
8%
27°C
8%
28°C
8%
29°C or higher
2%
19°C or below 53%
20°C 45%
25°C 45%
23°C 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
19°C or below
$0 Vol.
53%
20°C
$0 Vol.
45%
21°C
$0 Vol.
21%
22°C
$0 Vol.
31%
23°C
$63 Vol.
38%
24°C
$5 Vol.
7%
25°C
$0 Vol.
45%
26°C
$0 Vol.
8%
27°C
$0 Vol.
8%
28°C
$0 Vol.
8%
29°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent stormy conditions and high humidity are the main drivers keeping trader-implied odds centered on 22–23°C for Tokyo’s minimum temperature on September 7, 2026.**
Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and multiple forecast models show a period of cloudy skies, scattered to heavy showers, and thunderstorms through the night of September 6–7, which limit nocturnal radiative cooling and support overnight lows near 21–23°C. Stronger consensus on this range explains the tight clustering at 23°C (34.5%) and 22°C (30.5%), while the notable 26.5% on 19°C or below reflects residual uncertainty in exact storm timing and any brief clearer intervals that could allow slightly more cooling.
Higher outcomes (24°C+) carry low probability because models indicate continued moisture and cloud cover that should cap the minimum. Resolution will rest on the official JMA observation for the Tokyo station, with the next model updates and short-range guidance expected to sharpen the picture over the next 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$68End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent stormy conditions and high humidity are the main drivers keeping trader-implied odds centered on 22–23°C for Tokyo’s minimum temperature on September 7, 2026.**
Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and multiple forecast models show a period of cloudy skies, scattered to heavy showers, and thunderstorms through the night of September 6–7, which limit nocturnal radiative cooling and support overnight lows near 21–23°C. Stronger consensus on this range explains the tight clustering at 23°C (34.5%) and 22°C (30.5%), while the notable 26.5% on 19°C or below reflects residual uncertainty in exact storm timing and any brief clearer intervals that could allow slightly more cooling.
Higher outcomes (24°C+) carry low probability because models indicate continued moisture and cloud cover that should cap the minimum. Resolution will rest on the official JMA observation for the Tokyo station, with the next model updates and short-range guidance expected to sharpen the picture over the next 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$68End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent stormy conditions and high humidity are the main drivers keeping trader-implied odds centered on 22–23°C for Tokyo’s minimum temperature on September 7, 2026.** Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and multiple forecast models show a period of cloudy skies, scattered to heavy showers, and thunderstorms through the night of September 6–7, which limit nocturnal radiative cooling and support overnight lows near 21–23°C. Stronger consensus on this range explains the tight clustering at 23°C (34.5%) and 22°C (30.5%), while the notable 26.5% on 19°C or below reflects residual uncertainty in exact storm timing and any brief clearer intervals that could allow slightly more cooling. Higher outcomes (24°C+) carry low probability because models indicate continued moisture and cloud cover that should cap the minimum. Resolution will rest on the official JMA observation for the Tokyo station, with the next model updates and short-range guidance expected to sharpen the picture over the next 48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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