Recent short-term forecasts from agencies like MetService and international models indicate a maximum of 14–16°C for Wellington on September 5, supported by northwesterly winds, partial cloud cover, and typical early-spring conditions without strong warming signals. This aligns with the market's heavy weighting toward 15°C (51.5%) and 16°C (39.5%), reflecting trader consensus on modest diurnal heating amid moderate wind speeds that limit extreme peaks. El Niño persistence contributes to near-average spring temperatures across the region, with no major model shifts or anomalies noted in the past 48 hours. Updated runs ahead of the date will refine cloud and wind details critical to exact resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on September 5?
Highest temperature in Wellington on September 5?
15°C 52%
16°C 40%
17°C 6%
14°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
2%
14°C
4%
15°C
52%
16°C
40%
17°C
6%
18°C
1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
15°C 52%
16°C 40%
17°C 6%
14°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
10°C or below
$250 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$403 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$324 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$561 Vol.
2%
14°C
$682 Vol.
4%
15°C
$1,888 Vol.
52%
16°C
$2,298 Vol.
40%
17°C
$657 Vol.
6%
18°C
$229 Vol.
1%
19°C
$177 Vol.
<1%
20°C or higher
$231 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-term forecasts from agencies like MetService and international models indicate a maximum of 14–16°C for Wellington on September 5, supported by northwesterly winds, partial cloud cover, and typical early-spring conditions without strong warming signals. This aligns with the market's heavy weighting toward 15°C (51.5%) and 16°C (39.5%), reflecting trader consensus on modest diurnal heating amid moderate wind speeds that limit extreme peaks. El Niño persistence contributes to near-average spring temperatures across the region, with no major model shifts or anomalies noted in the past 48 hours. Updated runs ahead of the date will refine cloud and wind details critical to exact resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$7,700End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-term forecasts from agencies like MetService and international models indicate a maximum of 14–16°C for Wellington on September 5, supported by northwesterly winds, partial cloud cover, and typical early-spring conditions without strong warming signals. This aligns with the market's heavy weighting toward 15°C (51.5%) and 16°C (39.5%), reflecting trader consensus on modest diurnal heating amid moderate wind speeds that limit extreme peaks. El Niño persistence contributes to near-average spring temperatures across the region, with no major model shifts or anomalies noted in the past 48 hours. Updated runs ahead of the date will refine cloud and wind details critical to exact resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$7,700End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-term forecasts from agencies like MetService and international models indicate a maximum of 14–16°C for Wellington on September 5, supported by northwesterly winds, partial cloud cover, and typical early-spring conditions without strong warming signals. This aligns with the market's heavy weighting toward 15°C (51.5%) and 16°C (39.5%), reflecting trader consensus on modest diurnal heating amid moderate wind speeds that limit extreme peaks. El Niño persistence contributes to near-average spring temperatures across the region, with no major model shifts or anomalies noted in the past 48 hours. Updated runs ahead of the date will refine cloud and wind details critical to exact resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions