**Forecast models indicate a likely minimum temperature near 9–11°C (48–52°F) for Wellington on September 4, 2026, aligning with the closely matched market-implied odds around those levels.** Strong northwesterly winds, elevated dew points, and cloud cover associated with an approaching front are expected to limit radiational cooling overnight, while patchy rain may further moderate surface temperatures. Historical September data show typical overnight lows of 9–11°C, with the daily minimum usually occurring in the pre-dawn hours under clear or partly cloudy skies. Recent model consensus from sources such as MetService and international guidance points to daytime highs near 15–16°C and nighttime values around 11°C, though variations in wind speed (15–18 m/s) and timing of any clearing could shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C. This uncertainty—driven by the interplay of advection, cloud radiative effects, and frontal passage—explains the tight clustering of probabilities across 9–11°C outcomes versus lower odds for extremes below 8°C or above 16°C. Updated model runs closer to the date will refine these projections as the 48-hour forecast window narrows.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 4?
9°C 88%
10°C 88%
11°C 88%
12°C 88%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
7°C or below
69%
8°C
55%
9°C
88%
10°C
88%
11°C
88%
12°C
88%
13°C
88%
14°C
88%
15°C
8%
16°C
2%
17°C or higher
69%
9°C 88%
10°C 88%
11°C 88%
12°C 88%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
7°C or below
$0 Vol.
69%
8°C
$0 Vol.
55%
9°C
$0 Vol.
88%
10°C
$0 Vol.
88%
11°C
$0 Vol.
88%
12°C
$0 Vol.
88%
13°C
$0 Vol.
88%
14°C
$0 Vol.
88%
15°C
$0 Vol.
8%
16°C
$0 Vol.
2%
17°C or higher
$0 Vol.
69%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models indicate a likely minimum temperature near 9–11°C (48–52°F) for Wellington on September 4, 2026, aligning with the closely matched market-implied odds around those levels.** Strong northwesterly winds, elevated dew points, and cloud cover associated with an approaching front are expected to limit radiational cooling overnight, while patchy rain may further moderate surface temperatures. Historical September data show typical overnight lows of 9–11°C, with the daily minimum usually occurring in the pre-dawn hours under clear or partly cloudy skies.
Recent model consensus from sources such as MetService and international guidance points to daytime highs near 15–16°C and nighttime values around 11°C, though variations in wind speed (15–18 m/s) and timing of any clearing could shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C. This uncertainty—driven by the interplay of advection, cloud radiative effects, and frontal passage—explains the tight clustering of probabilities across 9–11°C outcomes versus lower odds for extremes below 8°C or above 16°C. Updated model runs closer to the date will refine these projections as the 48-hour forecast window narrows.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models indicate a likely minimum temperature near 9–11°C (48–52°F) for Wellington on September 4, 2026, aligning with the closely matched market-implied odds around those levels.** Strong northwesterly winds, elevated dew points, and cloud cover associated with an approaching front are expected to limit radiational cooling overnight, while patchy rain may further moderate surface temperatures. Historical September data show typical overnight lows of 9–11°C, with the daily minimum usually occurring in the pre-dawn hours under clear or partly cloudy skies.
Recent model consensus from sources such as MetService and international guidance points to daytime highs near 15–16°C and nighttime values around 11°C, though variations in wind speed (15–18 m/s) and timing of any clearing could shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C. This uncertainty—driven by the interplay of advection, cloud radiative effects, and frontal passage—explains the tight clustering of probabilities across 9–11°C outcomes versus lower odds for extremes below 8°C or above 16°C. Updated model runs closer to the date will refine these projections as the 48-hour forecast window narrows.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models indicate a likely minimum temperature near 9–11°C (48–52°F) for Wellington on September 4, 2026, aligning with the closely matched market-implied odds around those levels.** Strong northwesterly winds, elevated dew points, and cloud cover associated with an approaching front are expected to limit radiational cooling overnight, while patchy rain may further moderate surface temperatures. Historical September data show typical overnight lows of 9–11°C, with the daily minimum usually occurring in the pre-dawn hours under clear or partly cloudy skies. Recent model consensus from sources such as MetService and international guidance points to daytime highs near 15–16°C and nighttime values around 11°C, though variations in wind speed (15–18 m/s) and timing of any clearing could shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C. This uncertainty—driven by the interplay of advection, cloud radiative effects, and frontal passage—explains the tight clustering of probabilities across 9–11°C outcomes versus lower odds for extremes below 8°C or above 16°C. Updated model runs closer to the date will refine these projections as the 48-hour forecast window narrows.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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