**Current forecast consensus from multiple models points to a highest temperature in Warsaw on September 4, 2026, most likely in the 20–23°C range, with 21°C and 22°C carrying the bulk of market-implied probability.** Early September climatology for Warsaw shows average daily highs near 20–22°C, declining from late-summer peaks, and the latest short-range guidance aligns closely with this baseline. Persistent cloud cover, moderate southwesterly flow, and a chance of showers or rain (30–60% in several runs) are limiting daytime heating by reducing solar insolation and enhancing evaporative cooling. These conditions stem from a passing frontal system that has kept recent days cooler than mid-August norms. The narrow spread between the leading outcomes (21°C at 32%, 22°C at 28%, 23°C at 18.5%) reflects genuine uncertainty in model details: small differences in the exact timing of any clearing, boundary-layer moisture, or wind shifts can shift the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Lower probabilities for 24°C+ or sub-20°C outcomes indicate that both strong warming aloft and significant cold-air advection remain unlikely within the short forecast window. Updated model runs and official guidance over the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on September 4?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on September 4?
21°C 32%
22°C 28%
23°C 19%
20°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
18°C or below
4%
19°C
5%
20°C
15%
21°C
32%
22°C
28%
23°C
19%
24°C
4%
25°C
3%
26°C
3%
27°C
2%
28°C or higher
2%
21°C 32%
22°C 28%
23°C 19%
20°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
18°C or below
$0 Vol.
4%
19°C
$0 Vol.
5%
20°C
$0 Vol.
15%
21°C
$113 Vol.
32%
22°C
$81 Vol.
28%
23°C
$33 Vol.
19%
24°C
$0 Vol.
4%
25°C
$0 Vol.
3%
26°C
$0 Vol.
3%
27°C
$0 Vol.
2%
28°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecast consensus from multiple models points to a highest temperature in Warsaw on September 4, 2026, most likely in the 20–23°C range, with 21°C and 22°C carrying the bulk of market-implied probability.**
Early September climatology for Warsaw shows average daily highs near 20–22°C, declining from late-summer peaks, and the latest short-range guidance aligns closely with this baseline. Persistent cloud cover, moderate southwesterly flow, and a chance of showers or rain (30–60% in several runs) are limiting daytime heating by reducing solar insolation and enhancing evaporative cooling. These conditions stem from a passing frontal system that has kept recent days cooler than mid-August norms.
The narrow spread between the leading outcomes (21°C at 32%, 22°C at 28%, 23°C at 18.5%) reflects genuine uncertainty in model details: small differences in the exact timing of any clearing, boundary-layer moisture, or wind shifts can shift the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Lower probabilities for 24°C+ or sub-20°C outcomes indicate that both strong warming aloft and significant cold-air advection remain unlikely within the short forecast window. Updated model runs and official guidance over the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$226End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecast consensus from multiple models points to a highest temperature in Warsaw on September 4, 2026, most likely in the 20–23°C range, with 21°C and 22°C carrying the bulk of market-implied probability.**
Early September climatology for Warsaw shows average daily highs near 20–22°C, declining from late-summer peaks, and the latest short-range guidance aligns closely with this baseline. Persistent cloud cover, moderate southwesterly flow, and a chance of showers or rain (30–60% in several runs) are limiting daytime heating by reducing solar insolation and enhancing evaporative cooling. These conditions stem from a passing frontal system that has kept recent days cooler than mid-August norms.
The narrow spread between the leading outcomes (21°C at 32%, 22°C at 28%, 23°C at 18.5%) reflects genuine uncertainty in model details: small differences in the exact timing of any clearing, boundary-layer moisture, or wind shifts can shift the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Lower probabilities for 24°C+ or sub-20°C outcomes indicate that both strong warming aloft and significant cold-air advection remain unlikely within the short forecast window. Updated model runs and official guidance over the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$226End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecast consensus from multiple models points to a highest temperature in Warsaw on September 4, 2026, most likely in the 20–23°C range, with 21°C and 22°C carrying the bulk of market-implied probability.** Early September climatology for Warsaw shows average daily highs near 20–22°C, declining from late-summer peaks, and the latest short-range guidance aligns closely with this baseline. Persistent cloud cover, moderate southwesterly flow, and a chance of showers or rain (30–60% in several runs) are limiting daytime heating by reducing solar insolation and enhancing evaporative cooling. These conditions stem from a passing frontal system that has kept recent days cooler than mid-August norms. The narrow spread between the leading outcomes (21°C at 32%, 22°C at 28%, 23°C at 18.5%) reflects genuine uncertainty in model details: small differences in the exact timing of any clearing, boundary-layer moisture, or wind shifts can shift the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Lower probabilities for 24°C+ or sub-20°C outcomes indicate that both strong warming aloft and significant cold-air advection remain unlikely within the short forecast window. Updated model runs and official guidance over the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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