Recent forecast models from agencies like MetService and international ensembles indicate Wellington's minimum temperature on September 3 will likely fall in the 12–13°C range under persistent northwesterly flow, with partial cloud cover and light patchy rain limiting radiative cooling. Historical September climatology shows typical overnight lows near 9–11°C, yet current guidance reflects warmer advection from the Tasman Sea and elevated dew points near 12°C. Trader consensus remains split between sub-9°C and 18°C+ outcomes due to uncertainty in exact cloud timing and wind gusts exceeding 50 km/h, which can suppress or enhance minimums by several degrees. Updated high-resolution runs and official observations on September 2 will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on September 3?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 3?
8°C or below 69%
18°C or higher 69%
10°C 49%
12°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
8°C or below
69%
9°C
3%
10°C
49%
11°C
26%
12°C
27%
13°C
27%
14°C
27%
15°C
8%
16°C
3%
17°C
3%
18°C or higher
69%
8°C or below 69%
18°C or higher 69%
10°C 49%
12°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
8°C or below
$5 Vol.
69%
9°C
$5 Vol.
3%
10°C
$5 Vol.
49%
11°C
$0 Vol.
26%
12°C
$0 Vol.
27%
13°C
$0 Vol.
27%
14°C
$0 Vol.
27%
15°C
$5 Vol.
8%
16°C
$5 Vol.
3%
17°C
$5 Vol.
3%
18°C or higher
$5 Vol.
69%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from agencies like MetService and international ensembles indicate Wellington's minimum temperature on September 3 will likely fall in the 12–13°C range under persistent northwesterly flow, with partial cloud cover and light patchy rain limiting radiative cooling. Historical September climatology shows typical overnight lows near 9–11°C, yet current guidance reflects warmer advection from the Tasman Sea and elevated dew points near 12°C. Trader consensus remains split between sub-9°C and 18°C+ outcomes due to uncertainty in exact cloud timing and wind gusts exceeding 50 km/h, which can suppress or enhance minimums by several degrees. Updated high-resolution runs and official observations on September 2 will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$35End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from agencies like MetService and international ensembles indicate Wellington's minimum temperature on September 3 will likely fall in the 12–13°C range under persistent northwesterly flow, with partial cloud cover and light patchy rain limiting radiative cooling. Historical September climatology shows typical overnight lows near 9–11°C, yet current guidance reflects warmer advection from the Tasman Sea and elevated dew points near 12°C. Trader consensus remains split between sub-9°C and 18°C+ outcomes due to uncertainty in exact cloud timing and wind gusts exceeding 50 km/h, which can suppress or enhance minimums by several degrees. Updated high-resolution runs and official observations on September 2 will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$35End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from agencies like MetService and international ensembles indicate Wellington's minimum temperature on September 3 will likely fall in the 12–13°C range under persistent northwesterly flow, with partial cloud cover and light patchy rain limiting radiative cooling. Historical September climatology shows typical overnight lows near 9–11°C, yet current guidance reflects warmer advection from the Tasman Sea and elevated dew points near 12°C. Trader consensus remains split between sub-9°C and 18°C+ outcomes due to uncertainty in exact cloud timing and wind gusts exceeding 50 km/h, which can suppress or enhance minimums by several degrees. Updated high-resolution runs and official observations on September 2 will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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