Forecast models from sources like the GFS and ECMWF indicate a northwest airflow advecting mild air over Wellington, with strong winds (often 20+ mph) limiting overnight radiative cooling and producing a minimum temperature most likely near 10–12°C on September 2. Ensemble spreads and local variations around the harbor create the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities across 10–14°C outcomes, as small shifts in cloud cover or wind timing can alter the low by 1–2°C. Historical September averages near 9–11°C provide context, but current guidance shows limited potential for extremes below 8°C or above 15°C. Updated model runs overnight will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on September 2?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 2?
13°C 1%
7°C or below 0
8°C 0
9°C 0
NEW
NEW
Sep 2, 2026
7°C or below
-
8°C
-
9°C
-
10°C
-
11°C
-
12°C
-
13°C
1%
14°C
-
15°C
49%
16°C
35%
17°C or higher
35%
13°C 1%
7°C or below 0
8°C 0
9°C 0
NEW
NEW
Sep 2, 2026
7°C or below
$31 Vol.
-
8°C
$11 Vol.
-
9°C
$10 Vol.
-
10°C
$10 Vol.
-
11°C
$10 Vol.
-
12°C
$0 Vol.
-
13°C
$169 Vol.
1%
14°C
$5 Vol.
-
15°C
$10 Vol.
49%
16°C
$10 Vol.
35%
17°C or higher
$137 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources like the GFS and ECMWF indicate a northwest airflow advecting mild air over Wellington, with strong winds (often 20+ mph) limiting overnight radiative cooling and producing a minimum temperature most likely near 10–12°C on September 2. Ensemble spreads and local variations around the harbor create the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities across 10–14°C outcomes, as small shifts in cloud cover or wind timing can alter the low by 1–2°C. Historical September averages near 9–11°C provide context, but current guidance shows limited potential for extremes below 8°C or above 15°C. Updated model runs overnight will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$403End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources like the GFS and ECMWF indicate a northwest airflow advecting mild air over Wellington, with strong winds (often 20+ mph) limiting overnight radiative cooling and producing a minimum temperature most likely near 10–12°C on September 2. Ensemble spreads and local variations around the harbor create the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities across 10–14°C outcomes, as small shifts in cloud cover or wind timing can alter the low by 1–2°C. Historical September averages near 9–11°C provide context, but current guidance shows limited potential for extremes below 8°C or above 15°C. Updated model runs overnight will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$403End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from sources like the GFS and ECMWF indicate a northwest airflow advecting mild air over Wellington, with strong winds (often 20+ mph) limiting overnight radiative cooling and producing a minimum temperature most likely near 10–12°C on September 2. Ensemble spreads and local variations around the harbor create the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities across 10–14°C outcomes, as small shifts in cloud cover or wind timing can alter the low by 1–2°C. Historical September averages near 9–11°C provide context, but current guidance shows limited potential for extremes below 8°C or above 15°C. Updated model runs overnight will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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