Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Beijing's September 4 high will likely peak between 32–34°C under southerly flow and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, with afternoon maxima hinging on the exact timing of any cloud build-up and boundary-layer mixing. Current conditions feature light southerly winds and high pressure maintaining warm advection, consistent with early-September climatology where daily highs average near 29°C but can reach the low 30s during stable periods. Traders assign the highest probability to 33°C because ensemble runs show modest daytime warming without strong cooling mechanisms, though slight model spread on cloud cover and wind direction creates the tight clustering around 32–34°C. Updated short-range guidance from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on September 4?
Highest temperature in Beijing on September 4?
33°C 36%
32°C 29%
34°C 15%
31°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
27°C or below
1%
28°C
2%
29°C
3%
30°C
4%
31°C
13%
32°C
29%
33°C
36%
34°C
15%
35°C
6%
36°C
3%
37°C or higher
<1%
33°C 36%
32°C 29%
34°C 15%
31°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
27°C or below
$0 Vol.
1%
28°C
$0 Vol.
2%
29°C
$0 Vol.
3%
30°C
$25 Vol.
4%
31°C
$24 Vol.
13%
32°C
$54 Vol.
29%
33°C
$141 Vol.
36%
34°C
$24 Vol.
15%
35°C
$91 Vol.
6%
36°C
$0 Vol.
3%
37°C or higher
$100 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Beijing's September 4 high will likely peak between 32–34°C under southerly flow and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, with afternoon maxima hinging on the exact timing of any cloud build-up and boundary-layer mixing. Current conditions feature light southerly winds and high pressure maintaining warm advection, consistent with early-September climatology where daily highs average near 29°C but can reach the low 30s during stable periods. Traders assign the highest probability to 33°C because ensemble runs show modest daytime warming without strong cooling mechanisms, though slight model spread on cloud cover and wind direction creates the tight clustering around 32–34°C. Updated short-range guidance from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$459End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Beijing's September 4 high will likely peak between 32–34°C under southerly flow and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, with afternoon maxima hinging on the exact timing of any cloud build-up and boundary-layer mixing. Current conditions feature light southerly winds and high pressure maintaining warm advection, consistent with early-September climatology where daily highs average near 29°C but can reach the low 30s during stable periods. Traders assign the highest probability to 33°C because ensemble runs show modest daytime warming without strong cooling mechanisms, though slight model spread on cloud cover and wind direction creates the tight clustering around 32–34°C. Updated short-range guidance from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$459End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Beijing's September 4 high will likely peak between 32–34°C under southerly flow and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, with afternoon maxima hinging on the exact timing of any cloud build-up and boundary-layer mixing. Current conditions feature light southerly winds and high pressure maintaining warm advection, consistent with early-September climatology where daily highs average near 29°C but can reach the low 30s during stable periods. Traders assign the highest probability to 33°C because ensemble runs show modest daytime warming without strong cooling mechanisms, though slight model spread on cloud cover and wind direction creates the tight clustering around 32–34°C. Updated short-range guidance from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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