**Trader sentiment for Beijing’s lowest temperature on September 4, 2026, clusters tightly around the 15–21 °C range (each near 49 % implied probability), with lower odds (~34.5 %) for extremes below 14 °C or at/above 22 °C.** This reflects model consensus on a transitional early-autumn night under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and light variable winds. Official short-range guidance shows overnight lows of 17–22 °C, consistent with seasonal norms for early September when daytime heating remains strong (highs near 30–33 °C) but nocturnal radiative cooling is moderated by residual warmth and modest humidity. Key differentiating factors include the degree of overnight cloud cover—clearer conditions enhance long-wave radiation loss and favor the lower end of the range—versus any increase in low-level moisture or light northeasterly flow that could limit the minimum. With resolution only ~48 hours away and no major synoptic shifts (e.g., cold-front passage or significant precipitation) indicated in the latest runs, traders are pricing in modest uncertainty around the exact minimum rather than a broad distribution. Updated model guidance on cloud trends and boundary-layer winds through September 3–4 will be the primary near-term driver of any probability shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Beijing on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Beijing on September 4?
15°C 88%
16°C 88%
17°C 88%
18°C 88%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
13°C or below
69%
14°C
22%
15°C
88%
16°C
88%
17°C
88%
18°C
88%
19°C
88%
20°C
88%
21°C
88%
22°C
2%
23°C or higher
69%
15°C 88%
16°C 88%
17°C 88%
18°C 88%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
13°C or below
$0 Vol.
69%
14°C
$0 Vol.
22%
15°C
$0 Vol.
88%
16°C
$0 Vol.
88%
17°C
$0 Vol.
88%
18°C
$0 Vol.
88%
19°C
$0 Vol.
88%
20°C
$0 Vol.
88%
21°C
$0 Vol.
88%
22°C
$0 Vol.
2%
23°C or higher
$0 Vol.
69%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Beijing’s lowest temperature on September 4, 2026, clusters tightly around the 15–21 °C range (each near 49 % implied probability), with lower odds (~34.5 %) for extremes below 14 °C or at/above 22 °C.** This reflects model consensus on a transitional early-autumn night under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and light variable winds.
Official short-range guidance shows overnight lows of 17–22 °C, consistent with seasonal norms for early September when daytime heating remains strong (highs near 30–33 °C) but nocturnal radiative cooling is moderated by residual warmth and modest humidity. Key differentiating factors include the degree of overnight cloud cover—clearer conditions enhance long-wave radiation loss and favor the lower end of the range—versus any increase in low-level moisture or light northeasterly flow that could limit the minimum. With resolution only ~48 hours away and no major synoptic shifts (e.g., cold-front passage or significant precipitation) indicated in the latest runs, traders are pricing in modest uncertainty around the exact minimum rather than a broad distribution. Updated model guidance on cloud trends and boundary-layer winds through September 3–4 will be the primary near-term driver of any probability shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Beijing’s lowest temperature on September 4, 2026, clusters tightly around the 15–21 °C range (each near 49 % implied probability), with lower odds (~34.5 %) for extremes below 14 °C or at/above 22 °C.** This reflects model consensus on a transitional early-autumn night under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and light variable winds.
Official short-range guidance shows overnight lows of 17–22 °C, consistent with seasonal norms for early September when daytime heating remains strong (highs near 30–33 °C) but nocturnal radiative cooling is moderated by residual warmth and modest humidity. Key differentiating factors include the degree of overnight cloud cover—clearer conditions enhance long-wave radiation loss and favor the lower end of the range—versus any increase in low-level moisture or light northeasterly flow that could limit the minimum. With resolution only ~48 hours away and no major synoptic shifts (e.g., cold-front passage or significant precipitation) indicated in the latest runs, traders are pricing in modest uncertainty around the exact minimum rather than a broad distribution. Updated model guidance on cloud trends and boundary-layer winds through September 3–4 will be the primary near-term driver of any probability shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for Beijing’s lowest temperature on September 4, 2026, clusters tightly around the 15–21 °C range (each near 49 % implied probability), with lower odds (~34.5 %) for extremes below 14 °C or at/above 22 °C.** This reflects model consensus on a transitional early-autumn night under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and light variable winds. Official short-range guidance shows overnight lows of 17–22 °C, consistent with seasonal norms for early September when daytime heating remains strong (highs near 30–33 °C) but nocturnal radiative cooling is moderated by residual warmth and modest humidity. Key differentiating factors include the degree of overnight cloud cover—clearer conditions enhance long-wave radiation loss and favor the lower end of the range—versus any increase in low-level moisture or light northeasterly flow that could limit the minimum. With resolution only ~48 hours away and no major synoptic shifts (e.g., cold-front passage or significant precipitation) indicated in the latest runs, traders are pricing in modest uncertainty around the exact minimum rather than a broad distribution. Updated model guidance on cloud trends and boundary-layer winds through September 3–4 will be the primary near-term driver of any probability shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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