Recent forecasts from multiple sources, including Chinese meteorological services and international models, point to clear skies and light winds over Beijing on September 3, supporting radiative cooling that typically produces overnight lows near the 1991–2020 climatological average of 18.8°C. Hourly guidance shows temperatures bottoming out in the 17–21°C range during the pre-dawn hours, with minimal cloud cover limiting downward longwave radiation and keeping the urban heat island effect modest at standard observing sites. Model consensus remains tight on the absence of frontal passages or significant moisture, yet small differences in boundary-layer mixing and exact wind speeds explain the near-even market-implied odds across 15–18°C outcomes. Updated runs ahead of resolution will clarify whether any slight cooling bias materializes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Beijing on September 3?
Lowest temperature in Beijing on September 3?
17°C 29%
18°C 28%
15°C 27%
16°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
13°C or below
7%
14°C
8%
15°C
27%
16°C
27%
17°C
29%
18°C
28%
19°C
26%
20°C
25%
21°C
25%
22°C
1%
23°C or higher
24%
17°C 29%
18°C 28%
15°C 27%
16°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
13°C or below
$5 Vol.
7%
14°C
$5 Vol.
8%
15°C
$0 Vol.
27%
16°C
$0 Vol.
27%
17°C
$65 Vol.
29%
18°C
$0 Vol.
28%
19°C
$0 Vol.
26%
20°C
$0 Vol.
25%
21°C
$0 Vol.
25%
22°C
$5 Vol.
1%
23°C or higher
$5 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple sources, including Chinese meteorological services and international models, point to clear skies and light winds over Beijing on September 3, supporting radiative cooling that typically produces overnight lows near the 1991–2020 climatological average of 18.8°C. Hourly guidance shows temperatures bottoming out in the 17–21°C range during the pre-dawn hours, with minimal cloud cover limiting downward longwave radiation and keeping the urban heat island effect modest at standard observing sites. Model consensus remains tight on the absence of frontal passages or significant moisture, yet small differences in boundary-layer mixing and exact wind speeds explain the near-even market-implied odds across 15–18°C outcomes. Updated runs ahead of resolution will clarify whether any slight cooling bias materializes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$85End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple sources, including Chinese meteorological services and international models, point to clear skies and light winds over Beijing on September 3, supporting radiative cooling that typically produces overnight lows near the 1991–2020 climatological average of 18.8°C. Hourly guidance shows temperatures bottoming out in the 17–21°C range during the pre-dawn hours, with minimal cloud cover limiting downward longwave radiation and keeping the urban heat island effect modest at standard observing sites. Model consensus remains tight on the absence of frontal passages or significant moisture, yet small differences in boundary-layer mixing and exact wind speeds explain the near-even market-implied odds across 15–18°C outcomes. Updated runs ahead of resolution will clarify whether any slight cooling bias materializes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$85End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple sources, including Chinese meteorological services and international models, point to clear skies and light winds over Beijing on September 3, supporting radiative cooling that typically produces overnight lows near the 1991–2020 climatological average of 18.8°C. Hourly guidance shows temperatures bottoming out in the 17–21°C range during the pre-dawn hours, with minimal cloud cover limiting downward longwave radiation and keeping the urban heat island effect modest at standard observing sites. Model consensus remains tight on the absence of frontal passages or significant moisture, yet small differences in boundary-layer mixing and exact wind speeds explain the near-even market-implied odds across 15–18°C outcomes. Updated runs ahead of resolution will clarify whether any slight cooling bias materializes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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