**Recent northwest wind patterns and mild air advection are positioning the highest temperature in Wellington on September 4 near 17–18 °C, aligning with the market-implied probabilities favoring those outcomes.** Official short-range forecasts from MetService and global models show a high of 17 °C under strong northwesterlies, with some ensembles reaching 18 °C amid partial clearing after early showers. These conditions reflect springtime warming and the absence of strong southerly outbreaks. Seasonal outlooks note El Niño persistence supporting near- or above-average temperatures for the Wellington region through early spring. With resolution imminent, traders are weighting the latest model runs showing limited upside beyond 18 °C due to expected wind shifts and cloud cover. Historical September highs average near 14–15 °C, but current synoptic setup favors the warmer side of the distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on September 4?
Highest temperature in Wellington on September 4?
18°C 45%
17°C 41%
16°C 6%
19°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
12°C or below
1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
3%
15°C
6%
16°C
6%
17°C
36%
18°C
45%
19°C
8%
20°C
4%
21°C
2%
22°C or higher
1%
18°C 45%
17°C 41%
16°C 6%
19°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
12°C or below
$0 Vol.
1%
13°C
$64 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$0 Vol.
3%
15°C
$64 Vol.
6%
16°C
$73 Vol.
6%
17°C
$135 Vol.
36%
18°C
$212 Vol.
45%
19°C
$344 Vol.
8%
20°C
$0 Vol.
4%
21°C
$0 Vol.
2%
22°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent northwest wind patterns and mild air advection are positioning the highest temperature in Wellington on September 4 near 17–18 °C, aligning with the market-implied probabilities favoring those outcomes.** Official short-range forecasts from MetService and global models show a high of 17 °C under strong northwesterlies, with some ensembles reaching 18 °C amid partial clearing after early showers. These conditions reflect springtime warming and the absence of strong southerly outbreaks. Seasonal outlooks note El Niño persistence supporting near- or above-average temperatures for the Wellington region through early spring. With resolution imminent, traders are weighting the latest model runs showing limited upside beyond 18 °C due to expected wind shifts and cloud cover. Historical September highs average near 14–15 °C, but current synoptic setup favors the warmer side of the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$892End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent northwest wind patterns and mild air advection are positioning the highest temperature in Wellington on September 4 near 17–18 °C, aligning with the market-implied probabilities favoring those outcomes.** Official short-range forecasts from MetService and global models show a high of 17 °C under strong northwesterlies, with some ensembles reaching 18 °C amid partial clearing after early showers. These conditions reflect springtime warming and the absence of strong southerly outbreaks. Seasonal outlooks note El Niño persistence supporting near- or above-average temperatures for the Wellington region through early spring. With resolution imminent, traders are weighting the latest model runs showing limited upside beyond 18 °C due to expected wind shifts and cloud cover. Historical September highs average near 14–15 °C, but current synoptic setup favors the warmer side of the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$892End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent northwest wind patterns and mild air advection are positioning the highest temperature in Wellington on September 4 near 17–18 °C, aligning with the market-implied probabilities favoring those outcomes.** Official short-range forecasts from MetService and global models show a high of 17 °C under strong northwesterlies, with some ensembles reaching 18 °C amid partial clearing after early showers. These conditions reflect springtime warming and the absence of strong southerly outbreaks. Seasonal outlooks note El Niño persistence supporting near- or above-average temperatures for the Wellington region through early spring. With resolution imminent, traders are weighting the latest model runs showing limited upside beyond 18 °C due to expected wind shifts and cloud cover. Historical September highs average near 14–15 °C, but current synoptic setup favors the warmer side of the distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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