Current forecast models from MetService and international ensembles indicate Wellington's minimum temperature on September 5 will likely settle between 10–12 °C under northwesterly flow and partial cloud cover that limits overnight radiative cooling. This consensus supports the near-equal market-implied odds around 12 °C, 10 °C, and 11 °C while the elevated probabilities on 7 °C or below versus 17 °C or higher capture residual uncertainty from possible wind shifts or clearer skies that could enhance or suppress cooling. Springtime variability in the region, with typical September lows near 9 °C, further underscores how small changes in steering patterns or humidity can tip the daily minimum across resolution thresholds before final observations close the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on September 5?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 5?
7°C or below 69%
17°C or higher 69%
9°C 50%
12°C 34%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
7°C or below
69%
8°C
9%
9°C
50%
10°C
27%
11°C
27%
12°C
34%
13°C
27%
14°C
8%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
69%
7°C or below 69%
17°C or higher 69%
9°C 50%
12°C 34%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
7°C or below
$0 Vol.
69%
8°C
$9 Vol.
9%
9°C
$0 Vol.
50%
10°C
$0 Vol.
27%
11°C
$0 Vol.
27%
12°C
$0 Vol.
34%
13°C
$0 Vol.
27%
14°C
$0 Vol.
8%
15°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
17°C or higher
$0 Vol.
69%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from MetService and international ensembles indicate Wellington's minimum temperature on September 5 will likely settle between 10–12 °C under northwesterly flow and partial cloud cover that limits overnight radiative cooling. This consensus supports the near-equal market-implied odds around 12 °C, 10 °C, and 11 °C while the elevated probabilities on 7 °C or below versus 17 °C or higher capture residual uncertainty from possible wind shifts or clearer skies that could enhance or suppress cooling. Springtime variability in the region, with typical September lows near 9 °C, further underscores how small changes in steering patterns or humidity can tip the daily minimum across resolution thresholds before final observations close the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$9End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from MetService and international ensembles indicate Wellington's minimum temperature on September 5 will likely settle between 10–12 °C under northwesterly flow and partial cloud cover that limits overnight radiative cooling. This consensus supports the near-equal market-implied odds around 12 °C, 10 °C, and 11 °C while the elevated probabilities on 7 °C or below versus 17 °C or higher capture residual uncertainty from possible wind shifts or clearer skies that could enhance or suppress cooling. Springtime variability in the region, with typical September lows near 9 °C, further underscores how small changes in steering patterns or humidity can tip the daily minimum across resolution thresholds before final observations close the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from MetService and international ensembles indicate Wellington's minimum temperature on September 5 will likely settle between 10–12 °C under northwesterly flow and partial cloud cover that limits overnight radiative cooling. This consensus supports the near-equal market-implied odds around 12 °C, 10 °C, and 11 °C while the elevated probabilities on 7 °C or below versus 17 °C or higher capture residual uncertainty from possible wind shifts or clearer skies that could enhance or suppress cooling. Springtime variability in the region, with typical September lows near 9 °C, further underscores how small changes in steering patterns or humidity can tip the daily minimum across resolution thresholds before final observations close the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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